RT's Wednesday Churchill Downs Picks: Two MSW sprints for 2yos, with colts and fillies at good betting odds
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Heading out to CD again today
Churchill Downs Race 1 - $92K Restricted Maiden Special
2yo’s that sold or RNA for $40K or less going five furlongs
Interesting race with Steve Asmussen’s 1-Undalay (2/1) making his third start after a dramatic improvement in his second. A son of Uncaptured, he led down the rail last out only to falter late. 2yo third time starters are 25% after posting an 80+ Equibase number in its last. Conversely, Uncaptured male 2yo progeny have all fared poorly in their third start, including Lightening Larry, recent winner of the G2 Chick Lang stakes at Pimlico. Asmussen frigid cold of late with all runners and is 0/13 with 2yo’s. 2-Prove Right (7/2) will take money as his sire, Justify, 6th leader in first crop leaders thus far, has been a hot ticket with his progeny domestically. He just completed a :47.2 morning breeze, yet his trainer James Chapman, is only 9% with 2yo first timers. 5-John Grey (8/1) is by second leading first crop sire Bolt d’Oro, a 43% winner with first timers (3/7). His dam, Significant Bling, torched her debut by five and his sire did the same. Jeff Engler 11% with 2yo first time starts and his works have been modest at best. Interestingly, he was sold as a yearling for $90K, pinhooked and could not fetch $45K in his last auction. Caveat emptor. 3-Clear The Deck (5/1), by Army Mule, a first crop sire whose progeny are 2/4 thus far. Kenny McPeek, just 9% with first timers, yet his work pattern leading in has been increasing in results.
I am going with 4-Three Zero (12/1) who has a race at Gulfstream before shipping to Churchill, and gets 50% 2yo winning jockey, Ricardo Santana. Sire Kantharos 26% with second time 2yo colts.
Churchill Downs Race 4 $92K Restricted Maiden Special
2yo fillies that sold or RNA for $40K or less going five furlongs
First crop sire Sharp Azteca is 1/7 with his lone winner being Realitos, who put up a 61 Equibase number and that effort will not get it done today. So, I will eliminate 1-Cotton Candy Andy (7/2) and 3-Divina Dulce (6/1). 5-Shackled By Lust (5/2) is sired by Good Samaritan, a first crop sire whose lone foal to race thus far won at Horseshoe Indianapolis with a 72 Equibase score. Trainer Joe Sharp just 8% with 2yo debut horses and she has only two :12er works. I will pass this false favorite. 1a – Gonna Cut it (7/2) also is absent of three, :12er works and McPeek just 8% (10/121) with 2yo debut fillies.4-K C Mo (12/1) debuted here three weeks at 11/1 odds and ran like a 30/1 horse finishing dead last by 13 lengths. Tapiture 2yo fillies second start have not yielded very good results at this level. I am going with the Super Saver filly, 6-Shoplifter (6/1) who has only four works, yet she has two from the gate that equal the time to the two not out of the gate; meaning that the gate work is not affecting her ability. Almost every other horse in this race had a one second greater time from the gate at the comparative distance. So, look for Rafael Bejarano to come out blasting. I am also going to tie the 2-My Baton Rouge (8/1), that bullet :35.4 from the gate looks appealing. Add in Shackled By Lust in an exacta and trifecta. These three are going to jump to the lead and we will see who lasts.