RT's Sunday Churchill Downs Picks: Two $120K MSWs plus the Grade 3 Mint Julep Stakes in the 9th
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Heading out to CD and these are three plays I am going to make.
Churchill Downs Race 6 - $120K Maiden Special
3yo’s↑ going 8.5 furlongs on turf
Of course, a lot of money will be put on Chad Brown’s 5-Polyglot (3/1), and none will me mine. Sire Kitten’s joy a substandard to wager on prop of 10% with second turf routers at this age and sex and Brown a pedestrian (for Brown) 19% with 2nd starts and first blinkers. Interestingly, Chad Brown/Tyler Gaffalione just 15% together. Put 15-Rio King (8/1) in your virtual stable. Raced once as a two year old and just brought back for his 3yo season on May 13, he got nosed at the wire. This guy has an excellent turf pedigree with his dad, Bal a Bali, a black type winner and 25/15-1-4 on turf and his mom, Channel Lady, 12/5-2-0 on the surface. Grandpa English Channel no slouch himself, nailing a 23/13-4-1, $5.4M record. 10-Tepeu (7/2) is a Group 3 breeze tested colt by Tapit. Overall, Group 3 tested horses after their third race, win are 25%. However, when you start to narrow it down to a last race high Equibase number, it falls off dramatically. My choice is 1-Jack Rundle (8/1) by sire Jack Milton, who was 19/5-2-5 on turf. This will be his second race and after scoring a 92 Equibase number, the database reflects a 40% chance to win in their next race.
Churchill Downs Race 9 - The Grade 3, $200K Mint Julep Stakes
Filles and mares, 4yo’s↑ going 8.5 furlongs on turf
After getting a massively wide trip the entire race last time at nine furlongs fast time, yet still moved well in the stretch, I am taking the cutback and jockey upgraded 5-Lake Lucerne. Owned and bred by Godolphin, this Dubawi (8/5-1-1 $1.3M) mare is primed for a big run. Her dam, Round Pond, a 13/7-2-3 for $2M started to come into her own in her 4th and 5th years, including winning the BC Distaff at 4.
Churchill Downs Race 10 - $120K Maiden Special
3yo’s↑ going seven furlongs
10-Legionairre (8/1) is my choice. Into Mischief 3yo and up colts in their second msw races (35% yet their improvement over their first race is dramatically better), have been a winning bet for me if they have been working well. His last two works were 1:00.6 and :59.6.