RT's Friday Maiden America: Three 2yo MSW race picks from Churchill Downs, Belmont and Gulfstream Park
RT’s Spot Plays
05.27.22
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Three, two year old races today
Churchill Downs Race 1 - $120K Maiden Special
2yo’s going five furlongs
A tough race to call with 2-Justafever (5/2), a Justify colt whose dam, Nina Fever, has three foals and her only male offspring won his debut. Justify thus far is 1/2 with his progeny, and this Mike Maker trainee has been stellar in the mornings with a :47.6 gate work, and a pair of :48.8 gate works. Todd Pletcher (22% with 2yo first timers), saddles 3-Summonyourcourage (9/5), a $500K Keeneland September yearling sale colt by Practical Joke, a 37% sire with 2yo males. He just posted a :48.8 from the gate work and gauging a Pletcher trained first time starter by his works is a recipe for losing. 4-Owen’s Leap (3/1) is by 33% first time crop sire Bolt d’Oro of Spendthrift Farms, and trainer by 20% first time winner Tom Amoss. He will be ridden by 24% winner Edgar Morales. Three solid :48 works shows he is ready. After getting out of the gate poorly, 1-Tustler (6/1) debuted two weeks ago and put up an 80 Equibase number in a fourth place effort. After a slow start, he came five wide into the stretch and was full of run late with his head high and fighting to catch the others. That experience will serve him well. He is my choice for this because I love the angle of a second time starter in a good effort getting a positive jockey switch (2% winner Colby Hernandez to 17% winner Joe Rocco). If he scratches, his stablemate 1A-Spurs Up has an interesting case to be made – sire Dialed In is 30% with second time starting 2yo’s, and every horse that has ran since his debut had a dramatic improvement from their last.
Belmont Park Race 1 - $90K Maiden Special
2yo’s going five furlongs
$110K, 2021 Keeneland September yearling sale colt 2-Forte (4/5) by Violence and ridden by Irad Ortiz, debuts for Todd Pletcher. His works have been stellar, however, to lay this short of a price for a first time 2yo is not in the cards for this kid. Pletcher also has $95K 2021 Keeneland September yearling sale colt 4-Gotta Like Him (4/1) by first crop sire Tapwrit and has put up a pair of :48.8 breezes coming into this. The ½ brother to Kentucky Derby entrants White Abarrio and Barber Road, 5-Please Baby (3/1) is a pass this race, and I will keep a sharp eye on him in the upcoming races. This Race Day colt is bred for distance with a grandaddy of Tapit and his mom, Buttercup Bay (Bluegrass Cat) was 2/10, never going shorter than a mile. I view this as a jockey race and after digging, Luis Saez (on the 4) and Jose Ortiz (on the 5) are both 25% winners with 2yo’s. Incredibly, the rest are around ½ of that in win percent. I am taking Luis on 4-Gotta Like Him.
Gulfstream Park Race 2 - $65K Maiden Special
2yo’s going five furlongs on synthetic
Am not going to touch ml fave 3-Kohaku (2/1) given his sire has a 0% win rate with second time 2yo male starters and so does its trainer, Jorge Delgado. I am going with one of the two Kentucky-breds in this race, 7-Always There (10/1) by first crop sire Always Dreaming. He put up a solid :47.9 work eight days ago. Divergent View, this colt's dam, has one other foal who just missed in his debut and put up an 81 Equibase number.
Interesting Breeze Figs today:
Happy Hunting!