Garrity's Friday Dad's Hat Happy Hour Handicapping picks Pimlico, Belmont, Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita

For this early Memorial Day Weekend edition of Dad’s Hat Happy Hour Handicapping, we have five races at four tracks, from New York to Baltimore to Florida to California. We expect fast dirt and firm turf for all of them, so pour yourself a glass of one of the delicious, hand-crafted concoctions from our friends at Dad’s Hat, and let’s go.

Pimlico, Race 7, 3:43 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies

A field of seven 3-year-old fillies goes in Race 7 at Old Hilltop. We are going with the chalk, 2-A Little Bit of That, a Maryland-bred who has outrun her rather modest pedigree in her last two starts, in which she used her abundant natural early speed to win in wire-to-wire fashion. We see a similar setup, and a similar result, today. We will bet her to win at 9/5. The bet: Pimlico, Race 7, $40 to win on 2-A Little Bit of That.

Belmont Park, Race 8, 4:40 pm ET

Allowance/Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up

Seven older fillies and mares line up for today’s 8th at Belmont Park. Quite a few of them are coming off bad races, which makes us like 7-Rossa Veloce, who comes into the race in excellent form, having run a series of competitive races going back to last year. She makes her first start for new trainer Billy Morey today, who claimed her out of her last race; we think that is an upgrade, as Morey is a skilled conditioner who wins races at a very high rate: he’s 24% on the year, and a perfect 2-for-2 at the young Belmont Park meet. Rossa Veloce is 3-1 on the morning line, but will be lower at post time; we will bet her to win anyway. The bet: Belmont Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 7-Rossa Veloce.

Gulfstream Park, Race 8, 5:02 pm ET

Allowance/Optional Claiming, 1 mile, Dirt, Florida-breds 3 & Up

Eight Florida-breds line up for this first-level allowance at a mile on the dirt. Gulfstream is one of the very few tracks in the country where races at this distance are run around one, rather than two, turns, and that means that they are usually run more like sprints, rather than route races. We mention that because the favorite, 2-Chucky, has a running style that should be just about ideal this afternoon: he has enough speed to remain relatively close early, and enough stamina to hold off the closers late. He just missed in his last, which was at a mile and a sixteenth; we think the difference in distance matters little, but the return to a one-turn race is significant, and makes Chucky the pick. We will bet him to win at 9/5. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 2-Chucky.

Santa Anita Park, Race 3, 5:09 pm ET

Starter Allowance 6 furlongs, Turf, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

A field of six female turf sprinters goes to the gate for the 3rd at Santa Anita. There is little speed in the group, which will set the table for an upset, we think, as 4-Amiko Chow should get the early lead – trainer Neil Drysdale puts blinkers on her today, and that is an indication that rider Ryan Curatola is going to gun her early. We think that will result in a big improvement over her recent races, which have been less than stellar. And it certainly helps that the rest of this field is somewhere between weak and very weak. We will bet Amiko Chow to win at 8-1. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 3, $35 to win on 4-Amiko Chow.

Belmont Park, Race 9, 5:12 pm ET

$40,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, Turf, New York-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

A full field of twelve lines up for the nightcap in New York, a maiden turf sprint. The pick is 11-Coolcatsnkittens, who has a lot of changes going on today: she comes off a six-month layoff, she switches from dirt to turf, and she drops into the maiden claiming ranks after doing a speed-and-fade in a Maiden Special Weight race at Aqueduct last fall. We like the surface switch, as her pedigree seems more suitable for turf than for dirt; but we like the drop in class even more, as the move from straight maiden to maiden claiming company is, as we’ve noted here repeatedly, the biggest class drop in horse racing. And it doesn’t hurt that Coolcatsnkittens is trained by Christophe Clement, who is an ace with turf runners, and who has convinced top rider Irad Ortiz to take the mount. We will bet her to win at 6-1. The bet: Belmont Park, Race 9, $40 to win on 11-Coolcatsnkittens.

That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.