Mike Dennis's Thursday Belmont Park Pick is the 9th, a 7-furlong claimer on turf with an even money favorite
Racing at Belmont.NYRA

Mike Dennis's Thursday Belmont Park Pick is the 9th, a 7-furlong claimer on turf with an even money favorite

To play the favorite or play against? That is the question for Hamlet at the track. Unless he sits this one out.

Belmont Park

May 19, 2022

@DENMIKED

Review for Saturday, May 14

Picking a winner in this game is tough, 11-Autumn Glory ran a solid second in the last race this past Saturday. Beaten at the wire, by a jockey who won the last three on the day (Flavien Prat) and costing myself a nice win bet, along with hitting the Pick 4. I mentioned to use the horse in the multi race wagers but of course did not do so, I was on the 11 and stuck with him. Maybe next time it works out, but the effort was satisfactory and onward we go.

Other notes from the day.

1. Congrats to the connections of Highland Chief (IRE), winning a short-fielded stakes race and paying $40+ to do so. The emotion shown by Trevor McCarthy after getting his first grade one win is why I love horse racing. Yes, I love betting it too, but the pure joy you can see at times is not related to the betting for me. To win a 5-horse race, against others more highly touted and it paying 40 bucks, put a smile on my face.

2. Nice work by Bettors Insider’s Chris Garrity, @belmostickey hit the pick 4.

3. Lastly, I love this game and need to move by a track. If anyone in the internet world is reading this holler at me. I am down for NY, KY and FL. The live racing out here in Colorado is not cutting it. Cali racing once had my heart but with more owners leaving, I have thrown in the towel on betting it.

Belmont Park Pick for Thursday, May 19

Race 9 – Maiden Claiming 40k – 3 YO ^ - 7 Furlongs – Widener Turf

With 12 horses going and a highly favored entry (12-North Carolina 1/1) posting up outside my plan is per usual. Either buy or sell the FAV, if not buy then use a few against in the multi race wagers, unless a standout is elsewhere then single. Which can be tough to find in these types of races but possible.

12-North Carolina - EVEN MONEY ML FAVORITE

  • Deserved based on #’s

  • Other entries have speed #’s ½ of the favorite in the field.

  • For David Aragona to make this horse a 1-1 ML fav with a 12 hole shows you how weak this field is, as well the #’s.

To buy or to sell is the question.

Answer: After looking at each horse and even trying to get creative I am at a loss. Of course, the paper speaks but can we get more speed than the race shows? If so, it can set up to be a tough go at it for the FAV, pressured for lead, uses up energy and going 7F, not 6F.

I think, though, 12-North Carolina might put them to sleep, clears from the outside and Davis manages the tick tock clock in his head perfectly. Probably a quick first to clear out, then “sit chilly” time.

Betting, if I play the Pick 4 sequence, I will press my selections to the 12. Not thinking a win bet though and I might just sit out race, which would mean to sit out the Pick 4 (what do you mean? PASS RACES where you don’t feel like you have an edge!)

Best of luck with your betting and thank you for reading.

@DENMIKED

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