God's Tipster's Friday Churchill Downs Pick: In the 7th, looking to tie a Beau around a big maiden longshot
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Thursday’s Race Recap from Belmont Park:
(All odds US)
Race replays for yesterday’s races from Belmont Park can be found here:
Belmont Park:
Race 3: 5th@ 3.60/1
Race 7: 5th@ 18.90/1
Race 9: 6th@ 22.70/1
Our Thursday began with Manolito in Race 3 facing a big favorite in Brilliant Brooks. We were hoping for an upset of the heavy favorite with our layoff runner as he raced in contention til the far turn before fading in the drive. In Race 7, Nuclear Option stalked the quick early pace and faded in the lane. In Race 9, Duckphat raced near the back but wasn’t able to muster any kind of serious rally finishing 6th.
After getting sliced and diced at Belmont on Thursday, we’ll head to Churchill Downs for a Friday the Thirteenth race card as we look to carve up a few bookmakers.
We’re expecting fast and firm conditions beneath partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Let’s get to work!
Friday at Churchill Downs:
Race 7: Lolas Beau - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 30/1)
Maidens take to the turf for this 1 1/8th race. This field is a combined 0 for 67 and something’s gotta give. Our favorites are all shipping in from out of town and none of them has produced a speed figure to set themselves apart but Lolas Beau intrigued me here. On paper, he looks the part of a 30/1 shot - 0 for 7 in the money with his best race a 9 1/4 length loss last time out however there are a few things that make him a live longshot here. First off, he’s finally getting the surface he’s bred for. The first six starts of his career were on polytrack and dirt. He ran terribly. His dam only ran on the turf and last time out they finally got him on turf and it produced his top speed figure to date - 63 - a number only 11 points behind the top turf speed figure in this race. Last time out he was taken well off the pace - 21 lengths behind at the 1/4 mile pole which was too far back. By the 1/2 mile pole he was still nearly 5 lengths behind the 2nd to last runner. By the time the rider asked him for run it was too late for the win, but he put up the second fastest 1/4 mile turning for home and had the second fastest closing kick in the field of 11. He finished 6th but he was a fast closing head and a nose away from 4th and with a better ride he could’ve absolutely gotten third. The top two in that race were head and shoulders above the rest of the field and would be 2/5 in this spot. He should have pace to run at and he gets an additional 1/2 furlong to work with today. Bombs away!
Best of luck to everyone playing Friday’s races from Churchill Downs !