Mike Dennis returns, handicapping the 9th at Belmont, a turf route, last in the Late Pick 4
Belmont Park, Race 9 – State Bred – Maiden Special Weight – 3 YO ^ - 1 1/16th Miles – Widener Turf
The last leg of a multi race sequence can either mean a lot, or mean nothing, obviously it is dependent on how the three previous legs go in the sequence. When I handicap I usually do so backwards, mainly because more than not it seems like it is the last leg that I lose in. That may not make any sense at all but for whatever reason I do so, and the results have not been different. I just miss the first leg now.
Belmont Race 9 today NYRA is throwing 12 betting choices at you, with a couple AEs in case of a no show. The 5/2 favorite (7-Out of Sight) has run about a million times but did crack a Beyer # over the par last out, which nobody else in the field has accomplished.
The question is to play the favorite or not. Keep it simple, 12 horse MAIDEN race, the level is nice being a special weight with 79k purse, but still maidens. What do you we have to work with?
1. Who has not run before?
1-Unkoalafied – At 20/1 you would think why not? The DAM, not sire, has shown a little promise with three-year-old horses overall. The post position is not ideal, especially for a first time go at it. Maybe darts out of the gate though and spices up the pace.
6-Busy Morning – I wanted to get excited about this horse, but she looks like a wait and see to me. If you think this is a weak bunch overall though I can see taking 8/1.
2. Orlando Noda is at a ridiculous 46% for the meet so far, 6/13 winner. The worse thing you can do is look at a stat and base a bet 100 percent off it. In this case though I am doing exactly that, and will be using 3-Pave My Way, in the pick 4, at a 9/2 ML.
3. 4-Royal Dance – The odds lean me to use based off the trip last out and some possible love with the dam / sire. If taking a spread approach against a favorite, make sure the odds make sense to do so, at 10/1 ML, I am happy to include.
With above being said I am going to add two more horses to use in the last leg of the late pick 4. You can see my approach by now is not buying into the ML FAV, 7-Out of Sight. Best of luck and thank you for reading.
Using: 2-4, 8 (4 horses total)