RT's Wednesday Churchill Downs Picks: The 2nd is a $120K MSW for 2yos, 8th is the St. Matthews Stakes
RT’s Spot Plays
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Churchill Downs Race 2 - $120K Maiden Special
2yo’s going five furlongs
1-Ever A Rebel (8/5) $130K Keeneland September Yearling Sale colt, trained by Wesley Ward and ridden by Irad Ortiz, is by first crop sire Bolt d’Oro; the sires third horse to run thus far. One of the horses by Bolt d’Oro has a win and both have posted Equibase scores on the mid 70’s. A repeat of that number will not get it done today, however, that is not a predictor. His works have been pedestrian and am not inclined to bite. 3-Bling Bling Bling (2/1) is by Too Much Bling, a sire that has a strong 25% win rate with 2yo colts. Steve Asmussen trained (16% 1st time 2yo colts), he has two :47.8 works from the gate, which keeps him in the mix of the trend with two year old first timers. I am going to take a shot on the beaten favorite in his last race, 6-Abinadi (12/1) who gets a weight break with Rene Diaz and my preference to bet back a beaten favorite from their debut race.
Churchill Downs Race 8 – The $160K St. Matthews Overnight Stakes
4yo’s↑ six furlongs
I am taking 3-Bango (4/1) with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons and his Churchill record of 11/6-1-2 for $431K, and distance record of 9/5-0-1 for $346K. He has raced without Lasix since last April and just popped a bullet 1:00 breeze three weeks ago.
Churchill Downs Race 9 – The $200K William Walker Stakes
3yo’s going 5.5 furlongs on turf
We had rain off and on yesterday so if this is off the turf, I will pass. If it stays on, the chalk, 4-Asymmetric (2/1), an Irish bred shipper who has a Group 2 win in England and coming in only 1.75 lengths behind the winner in his last, a Group 1 race at Newmarket. He has a dramatic class edge with his 6/3-1-1 record for $210K and gets Irad aboard. Trainer Wesley Ward a strong 28% brining horses back after 6 months and if this is on the turf, it will be soft, which is much like where he has raced.
Happy Hunting !