Rt’s Spot Plays
4.21.2022
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With Crackalacking pulling a :48.6 from the gate before her bow yesterday, then wining, we are now at six of the seven 2yo races that we have tracked - the winning horse put up a 4 furlong :12er or below work.
Today’s top choices
Keeneland Race 1 – $50K Maiden Claiming
Fillies and mares 3yo↑ going six furlongs
Can’t see taking the chalk, 4-Cupid’s Strike (7/2) with McPeek struggling this badly at Keeneland (2/26), so 8-Bachelorette (6/1), with her recent :47.2 work and speed look to be the play. 6-Shell Shock (6/1) gets class relief today and has worked forwardly for her 2022 debut.
Keeneland Race 2 – $100K Maiden Special
3yo fillies going 8.5 furlongs on turf
Believe it that Chad Brown is just 2/14 on turf and Flavien Prat is 1/13 on the same, coupled with Flavien just 4/25 in routes (although he went 1/2 yesterday), makes me a skeptic of 9-Pharoah’s Road (7/2). 8-Walkathon (9/2) - Julian Leparoux is another that I am weary of, however, this Twirling Candy filly looked like a different horse when switched to turf in her last. Her works have been tremendous with the most recent :47.8 and a prior :59.0. A first time starter by Unified, 15-Casa De Goat (4/1) got excellent clocker comments and if allowed, can be a factor. I am going with 2nd time starter 1-Kivalina (4/1) who just missed by a nose last out and retains Tyler Gaffalione. According to our database, horses that debut and lose by under a length, return to win in their next race 29% of the time.
Keeneland Race 3 – $50K Maiden Claiming
3yo’s↑ going 8.5 furlongs
I am going to pass this race.
Keeneland Race 4 – $10K Starter Allowance, purse $44K
Fillies and mares 4yo’s↑ going 8.5 furlongs
With all the speed in this, the pace should set up nicely for Irad Ortiz on 6-Jazzy Lady (4/1). The choice.
Keeneland Race 5 – $10K Allowance
4yo↑ fillies and mares going 5.5 furlongs on turf
Am playing a trifecta box with 9-Cruz Boy (5/1), 2-Ursulina (20/1), 8-Only Kidding (4/1) and 6-Mun Luv (12/1). Cruz Boy is my overall pick.
Keeneland Race 6 – $80K Optional Claimer N1X
3yo fillies going seven furlongs
6-Querobin Dourada (3/1) is my choice. The difference in her two year old and three year old campaign has been a dramatic upward trajectory. She will likely move forward in this race.
Keeneland Race 7 – $100K Maiden Special
3yo’s↑ going 8.5 furlongs
11-Stay Restless (4/1) is my top choice and will connect the $4.1M filly who is owned by leading owner Godolphin, 6-Aussie Pride (4/1). Also going to tie up 9-Away From Home (15/1) and 12-Afjan (5/1) in exotics.
Keeneland Race 8 – $120K Allowance N2X
4yo’s↑ going ten furlongs on turf
Going with 8-English Conqueror (8/1). Irad sees fit to riding this gelding and at this distance, he will be the difference maker.
Keeneland Race 9 – The $300K Grade 3 Doubledogdare Stakes
Fillies and mares, 4yo’s old↑ going 8.5 furlongs
Malaathat. Say no more
Keeneland Race 10 - $100K Maiden Special
Fillies and mares 3yo’s↑ going 5.5 furlongs on turf
Irad/Wesley 7-Musical Design (2/1) and 5-My Lily Mae (10/1)
Happy Hunting!