RT's Thursday Maiden America picks Gulfstream Park and Keeneland – two races for 2yo fillies

Rt’s Spot Plays

4.21.2022

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We are now at five of the six 2yo races we have tracked, the winning horse put up a 4 furlong :12er or below work.

Gulfstream Park Race 2 - $55K Maiden Special

2yo fillies going 4.5 furlongs

7-Regal Beginning (4/1) her momma, More Royalty, put up a 71 Equibase number on debut and has one foal that won at first asking, hitting a 72 Equibase number. Her trainer, Joseph Orseno, has a 31% win rate with first time starters, yet when they are two year olds, he is only 10%. 6-Jellybean (5/2) has four, 4 furlong works leading into this, and none of them below :49. Trainer David Carlos is 15% with 2yo first timers, and 9% with first timers overall. Her dam has two foals that each put up high Equibase numbers in their bow, and one ran a very game second, while the other won. Sire Brethren is just 9% winners with 2yo filles, so it is tough to see how this one is low odds. 3-Krazykatkousin (2/1) is trained by 22% first time winner, Michael Yates. However, with 2yo’s he drops to 14%. She clocked a :35.2 on April 3, yet did a :49.7 from the gate, which tells me the distance, for this race, may not be to her liking. Her sire, Cajun Breeze, is 0% with first time 2yo fillies, so it must her jockey, Miguel Vazquez, a 25% winner over the last 10 days, which is the reason she is favorited. I am going with a price and 8-Imperiously (15/1). Her dams two other foals fared poorly, yet her sire, The Big Beast has a killer 42% win rate with 2yo fillies. Interestingly, her trainer, Mary Lightner, is 0% with first time starters and 17% with 2yo’s first timers.

Keeneland Race 2 - $80K Maiden Special

2yo fillies going 4.5 furlongs

2-Catcha Later Mo (12/1) has just three siblings and they are half-brothers, including two that have raced at Keeneland thus far – Baytown Get It On, my choice for yesterday who doo-doo’d the bed, and Mr. Gordy, who won here on April 13. 4-Hippie Trail (5/2) is favored due to Irad/Wesley and its sire, Hootenanny, is owned by Wesley Ward. Hootenanny’s progenies are not very tough in msw races, going 0/5. I am going with 7-Domincana (7/2), who, on April 8, was bet down to 2/5 and ran like she was 15/1. The $300K September Keeneland yearling purchase came back to the work tab on April 17 and clicked a :36.8 from the gate. She is the only one with a race experience and I will stay with that plan.

Happy Hunting!