RT's Maiden America Wednesday: 2yo and 3yo races from Keeneland - Olczyk makes debut as a runner in the 1st

RT’s Spot Plays

04.13.22

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Keeneland Race 1 - $80K Maiden Special

2yo’s going 4.5 furlongs

7-Olczyk (5/2) $170K KEE SEP YRLG sale gelding by Nyquist, and Ward trainee, gives Wesley the chance to get off the schneid being 0/3 with 2yo’s thus far. Last year, Ward started his Keeneland 2yo races slow, so no surprise there, and Nyquist an excellent 32% sire for 2yo first time starters. Ward’s other entrant, 3-Alibi Ike (3/1) is by Munnings, a 24% 2yo male sire for first timers. Ridden by Irad Ortiz (26% overall and 0/1 w/2yo’s), in typical Wesley Ward trainee fashion, both colts have had light workouts with none past three furlongs, so it is a tough guess to see how they manage longer distance. I am going with 5-Top Of My Game (6/1), who has a :48.8 gate work, and a 33% 2yo sire Mark Valeski. Trainer Luis Mendez, a 7% overall winner, is 14% with first time starters, 23% with two year olds, and 21% in msw races.

Keeneland Race 4 - $100K Maiden Special

Fillies and mares, 3yo’s↑ going 6.5 furlongs

Jockeys Luis Saez aboard 8-Merci Road (12/1), and Joel Rosario, riding 3-Steal My Sunshine (4/1), are both struggling in route races. Rosario is 0/5 and Saez is 1/9, and whereas six and one half furlongs is not considered a route, the extra one half furlong, from what is a common six furlong sprint, requires the jockey to rate more deftly than usual. I will pass on these two. 5-Aaliyah Ezri (6/1) has Chad Brown and and that may be all he has going for him. The odds will drop based on those two factors, yet this one is a pass as well.

Keeneland Race 8 - $50K Starter Allowance NWx

3yo fillies going seven furlongs

I will be playing a super high five, trifecta, super, and exacta box on 6-Runnin Happy (12/1), 9-Magniloquent (4/1), 1-Annagangsta (20/1), and 8-Santa Elena (7/2) . I will add 3-Thefabulous Moolah (6/1) to the super high five because Irad is in the irons and rest assured he will get that horse in the top four or five. I am following the data by SmartCap, and I am putting Runnin Happy on top as she looks ready to uncork one.

Happy Hunting!