God's Tipster's Wednesday Keeneland Pick is a first-time starter at a good price in the 4th race, a sprint

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Happy Wednesday everyone. We’re back for another exciting week of racing. This week will culminate with the Grade 3 Lexington from Keeneland which is the final, last-minute race for any owners and trainers who still have dreams of making it to the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. We’ll get started with a Wednesday card at Keeneland where there’s a 50/50 chance of rain at the moment. I normally don’t make 5 selections on a Wednesday but I really feel like these Keeneland races offer some value so I want to take advantage while they’re open during this quick, three week period.

Wednesday at Keeneland:

Race 4: One Full Moon - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)

Fillies and mares sprint 6 1/2 furlongs in this $100k maiden race. Despite the rich purse there are very few runners in here who’s running lines get the pulse racing. One Full Moon is a first time starter who debuts for trainer Helen Pitts. Pitts isn’t a household name but she is the trainer who trained the great Curlin to his dominant maiden win before he was moved to the barn of Steve Asmussen. Pitts’s numbers with maidens are just okay but late last year she had a debut runner who won at Churchill Downs with a very similar profile - a maiden dirt, sprint race for fillies on the Kentucky circuit. She won at 7/1 and her workout pattern was very similar to this one’s. Three furlong workouts to four furlongs followed by three five furlong workouts then a cutback to four furlongs with a bullet workout prior to debut. This one actually appears to be working faster than that one was. Intriguing at 15/1.

Best of luck to everyone playing Wednesday’s races from Keeneland!