RT's Maiden America Sunday has Keeneland picks for two high-quality MSWs, the 1st and 3rd races
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RT's Maiden America Sunday has Keeneland picks for two high-quality MSWs, the 1st and 3rd races

First post at Keeneland is at 1 pm EDT.

RT’s Spot Plays

04.10.22

Follow Me @RtsSpot

This years Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks have shaped up to be two excellent races. Race 8 today at Keeneland, the $400K Beaumont Stakes, will have Oaks qualifying points of 10-4-2-1, which will be inconsequential to the overall final points.

Updated Derby and Oaks points.
Updated Derby and Oaks points.RT

Keeneland Race 1 - $80K Maiden Special

2yo’s going 4.5 furlongs

My notion of going with the best jockeys and/or best trainers ended up winning the first time, so, let’s see what today brings. Wesley Ward has two in this, 1-Starstriker (3/1), with Irad Ortiz in the irons, and 2-Gila (5/2), has Johnny Velazquez up. According to the latest published results from Keeneland.com, Irad is leading with five wins at a 33% rate. Velazquez is not on the list. Between these two, I like Irad’s horse, Starstriker, however, he comes from a turf pedigree and this race looks like a typical Ward setup in preparation to ship to Europe. Gila’s sire, Mohaymen, has a 0% win rate/for 2yo male colts, so given the choices, Starstriker looks the better. 8-Seachrome (7/2) just recorded a :47.4 gate work at Indy Grand, yet I am leery of no workouts at the track and California Chrome offspring tend not to fare well in their first starts as 2yo’s (0/18). That said, I am going with 6-Julia’s Chardonnay (6/1) whose sire, Competitive Edge, has a 40% win rate with 2yo colt msw’s, and trainer John Ennis is 20% with first time starters. Finally, his :36.4 drill from the gate looks most appealing.

Keeneland Race 3 - $100K Maiden Special

3yo fillies going 8.5 furlongs

Today we have Chad/Irad with the $670K filly 8-Distinctlypossible (3/1), getting her third start after a six month respite after two tries in her two year old season. We also have Todd/Tyler with the $250K filly 12-Falconjet (7/2), who gets her second start since March 5 at Gulfstream. In that race, this daughter of Uncle Mo fought gamely in the stretch, to just miss by a head. Of the eleven entrants in the race, the five that have returned to run again, have all improved their Equibase score. Looking at Chad’s filly, Distinctlypossible, she debuted at Saratoga just missing by ½ length to Gerrymander, who ran second to the Oaks favorite Echo Zulu a month later in the Frizette. Distinctlypossible, in her second race, the Alcibiades, she ran second to Juju’s Map, who was on the Oaks trail until being sidelined after the Breeders Cup Filly Juvenile race, losing to Echo Zulu. So, both fillies have been racing against the best three year old fillies. This race will have plenty of up front speed with 9-Butterbean (6/1), 1-Al Qahira (9/2), Falconjet and 4-Prima Ballerina (8/1). I will look for Irad to do what he does best, rate the horse and close sharply, and that makes Distinctlypossible my choice.

Happy Hunting!

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