RT’s Spot Plays
3.27.22
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Chalkfest yesterday for the two, 3yo preps with Echo Zulu making it look easy and Epicenter coming from off the pace; a new dimension for him. In Friday’s notes, I mentioned Benevengo, who won yesterday paying $10.40. If you want to see the value in a 27.45’ stride length, check out the replay and pay attention to the stretch run where he matches strides with Cyberviking gaining ground in each effort. He put up a 98 Equibase score yesterday.
Aqueduct Race 3 - $70K Maiden Special
NY bred 3yo’s going one mile
Going with 2-Double Maker (9/2), by Empire Maker, who, as a sire, is 29% in second starting state bred 3yo males. 4-Thrill Of It (5/2) is coming off a big effort last out and came out of the race well as noted by his 1:00.2 last work. 6-Colloquy (2/1) should get a slice today in his second start.
Aqueduct Race 5 - $80K Maiden Special
3yo fillies going six furlongs
3-Run Up The Score (4/1) $220K Fasig yearling sale filly has an all-star lineup of connections with Klaravich as the owner, Spendthrift the breeder and Chad Brown (21% with first timers) training. The concern is her works have not been over four furlongs, yet Brown keeps winning these though not pressing his first timers in the morning. 4-Everyoneloveslinda (7/2) showed the difference in maturity from her three tries as a two year old, then benched for four months, returning to a rough trip in the slop on Feb. 25 to just miss as the favorite. She had a nice freshening on March 20 and will take this from gate to wire.
Aqueduct Race 8 – The $100K East View Stakes
3yo NY Bred fillies going seven furlongs
Checking our database of state bred stakes races, 72% of winners won their last race, 67% came from winning their last msw or smsw race, and 27% from winning their last, a stakes race. The one concern is we just started this last fall when many msw runners started their careers on the stakes path and ran up the wins. As the year progresses, the data will start to change. That said, 5-Yolo Cuz (1/1) looks like a mortal lock in this with his last two winners in stakes company. His 3/2-0-0 record for $332K dwarfs the field and his last work of :47 shows he is in great form. That said, as a non-chalk player, I am going with 4-Sandy’s Garden (9/2) who led the field in her last before tiring late. That was at Laurel, in an open company stakes event, which has turned out to be a key race. Two back, like today’s conditions, a NY bred stakes, she put up a 96 Equibase score and every runner out of that race returned to a lesser score. She worked a less than :12er on March 18, posting a :47.6, the 5th best of 135.
Happy Hunting!