God's Tipster's Thursday 1.27 Fair Grounds Pick is the 5th race, a maiden claimer sprint with a longshot

Wednesday’s Race Recap from Tampa Bay Downs:

(All odds US)

Race replays for Wednesday’s races from Tampa Bay Downs can be found here (click link and scroll):

Tampa Bay Downs:

Race 1: 3rd@ 1.30/1

Race 4: 1st@ 1.00/1 BEST BET 🔥🔥🔥🔥

Our week began with a stumble out of the gate both metaphorically and literally as Last Promise went to his knees at the start and was playing catch-up from there. Was hoping he’d break on top and lead them in a merry chase but that didn’t happen. Fortunately, Nette Nette more than made up for that stumble with an emphatic 7 length win in Race 4 in the sloppy conditions.

A win and a third place finish with two shorter priced horses today. For Thursday we’re going longshot hunting.

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Let’s head to Fair Grounds for Thursday’s racing action. We expect sunny skies and chilly conditions. I’m handicapping for a fast main track but I know the turf courses have taken rain Monday and Tuesday so I’m not handicapping any turf races in the event they get rained off. Let’s get to the action!

Fair Grounds:

Race 5: Josan - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)

Maiden claimers sprint 5 1/2 furlongs and of the ones who have raced before, Fluffpoint looks best but he’s already disappointed as the favorite several times and has shown an inability to handle this distance so I’m looking for value elsewhere. Josan will likely be ignored at the windows but this first time starter is by a sire - Sabercat - who’s winning with a robust 17% of his first time starters. This is the first foal from a dam who won in her third career start so this one has the breeding to be precocious. The connections are admittedly the hang-up here as they’re 0 for 21 on the year but in a race without much talent signed on, sometimes it’s worth taking a shot.

Best of luck to everyone playing Thursday’s races from Fair Grounds!