Thursday 12.30 Aqueduct Picks: God's Tipster handicaps four races at the Big A, wants total effort from Alite
Racing at AqueductNYRA

Thursday 12.30 Aqueduct Picks: God's Tipster handicaps four races at the Big A, wants total effort from Alite

There could be some rain at the track but not enough to matter.

Wednesday’s Race Recap from Gulfstream Park:

(All odds US)

Replays for yesterday’s races from Gulfstream Park:

Race 4: 2nd@ 4.40/1

Race 5: 6th@ 2.40/1

Race 9: 6th@ 10.60/1

Our week began in Race 4 at Gulfstream where we had Please the Pharoah who was 12/1, 10/1, 8/1 when the gates opened and dropped to 4/1 on the last click. Someone obviously unloaded on him and he gave it a good run but was too far behind Megayacht who stalked the heavy favorite, North Carolina, and got the first jump. In Race 5, Harry’s ontheLoose got to the early lead but that’s rarely where you want to be in a race on Tapeta polytrack as he was passed in the stretch by a wall of horses. In Race 9, Centsless Drama was our selection and she stalked the pace and took the lead turning for home but, like our runner in Race 5, was passed in the stretch by a crush of horses and finished a close up 6th.

A second with two off the board finishes to start the week.

Let’s move to Aqueduct for our penultimate racing day of 2021. We expect some rain on Wednesday but don’t think it will rain enough to impact the track conditions. Let’s get this party started.

Thursday picks for Aqueduct:

Race 1: Brew Pub - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 8/5)

Maiden claimers kick us off sprinting 6 furlongs and an 8/5 BEST BET doesn’t sound like it offers much value but I think Brew Pub is head and shoulders above his competition here. He does have low profile connections and is currently riding an 0 for 19 streak so that will keep his odds above even money but he owns this field’s top fast track speed figure by a full 18 points. He also owns the field’s top last race main track speed figure by 7 points. Finally looks like he caught a field he can handle.

Race 2: Geometrique - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)

Two year old maiden fillies race 7 furlongs just two days in advance of their third birthday. Most eyes will be on 4/5 morning line favorite Diamond Collector who ran well first time out. These connections don’t warrant the low odds so I’m going to try to upset things with a first time starter named Geometrique. This filly races for low profile connections who can win at a price as they did only a few weeks ago with his stablemate - Tweaqued came through for us for us at odds of nearly 10/1. Four of Geometrique’s workout times match those of Tweaqued so there’s a decent chance this one can run too.

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Race 4: What’s My Category - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)

Claiming sprinters go 6 furlongs and there should be plenty of pace on early in this one. What’s My Category has the angle of - “only closer in a field full of speed” although his most recent start wasn’t a nice welcome back to Aqueduct. This runner drew one of the best riders on the grounds and will be the one flying late.

Race 8: Alite - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)

Maiden claimers race a mile. All eyes will be on Todd Pletcher’s runner, Total Effort, breaking from the outside but, on debut, Total Effort put up a “total non-effort” (ya see what I did there?) and this $290k purchase drops and is in for sale for just $20K. Not a good sign and he will take money based on his connections. Alite is interesting to me. This one races for a barn that doesn’t win many but last time out, this runner put up his strongest showing since the start of the year. This runner’s top speed figure is a full eleven points higher than the next closest speed figure on dirt in this field and that figure was earned over this track. Last time out he wasn’t pushed for run in the stretch on the replay and if they give him something to run at this time, look out!

Best of luck to everyone playing Thursday’s races from Aqueduct!

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