Maiden America Monday 12.27 Fair Grounds Picks: Two 2yo MSWs plus the Lettelier and Sugar Bowl Stakes

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Maiden America Monday 12.27 Fair Grounds Picks: Two 2yo MSWs plus the Lettelier and Sugar Bowl Stakes

RT's first post is at 3:01 pm EST.

Fair Grounds Race 3 - $40K Maiden Special

Two Year Olds racing 5.5 furlongs on turf

Four of the twelve look interesting. 8-Holiday House (6/1) appears to have the good people of Godolphin stumped as what to do because in his three races, he has maintained a consistent Equibase number, yet he hasn’t put on his closing shoes yet. He will be competitive today. 4-Dot’s Dollar (5/1) debuted at Churchill on dirt in late November as second in the betting. He put in a game effort that day, staying near the lead before tiring and earning show cash. He moved up in class from mcl to msw and should show improvement from his last. 11-Barrone (4/1) is a first time starter Into Mischief (23% for this race condition) colt that has been crushing his workouts. His last on Dec. 15 was a bullet :59.8 and Tom Amoss has a viable 20% win rate with first time starters. 12-Rumble Ready (5/1) comes in with the best last Equibase score of 80 at Fair Grounds, his first there, and his sire, More Than Ready, is 33% given today’s specs. He just fired a bullet :47.6 on 12.19.

With the lousy efforts the experienced horses in this race have, I am giving the nod to the first time starter Barrone

Fair Grounds Race 5 - $40K Maiden Special

Two Year Old Fillies racing 8.5 furlongs on turf

I am taking 16-Paris Paramour (6/1) if she gets a shot. If not, Kelly Rubley’s second time starter, 2-Great Adventure (8/1) and 14-Lady Maeve (8/1), who is dropping in class. Given Great Adventure’s last work of :48.2, and the fact the connections started her off routing, a sign of long term intentions, I am going with her.

Fair Grounds Race 6 – The $100K Lettelier Stakes

Two Year Old Fillies going six furlongs

3-Girl With A Dream (5/2) is by Practical Joke, and as I pointed out yesterday, his stakes race record of 3/16 isn’t going to win an Eclipse Award, yet 18% is still solid. She crushed her rivals in her bow, moved to The Spa for the Spinaway and, like the rest of the filed in that race, was stomped by Kentucky Oaks hopeful, Echo Zulu. Her subsequent two races were in allowance company, getting second after leading and tiring, and her most recent where Joel Rosario changed her speed tactic to closing and she caught the leader to win by ½. Two of four solid works to lead her up to this and she is a major win probability. 5-Com’ On Sweet Love (3/1) may surprise after scoring a big number in her second msw to win at this track and distance. 6-Microbiome (3/1) is going to be my choice after she comes off two disappointing stakes races, one being the G2 Adirondack where she was second in the betting. Her last, a $200K stakes was at Monmouth and perhaps with the jockey not being able to use the whip, and she is still a very young filly, she lost focus. Bullet :47 work when she first arrived and a 1:00 after and her last a :48, shows she’s ready.

Fair Grounds Race 10 – The $100K Sugar Bowl Stakes

Two Year Old colts racing six furlongs

I am going with Spendthrift’s 4-Underhill’s Tab (4/1) who broke his maiden here on Nov. 26. His last two works of :48, along with his last Equibase number of 84, puts him in a 4/12 or 33% category in our two year old database.

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