Sunday Boxing Day Fair Grounds Picks: The Hooptie Handicapper looks at 2yo stakes races in the 10th and 11th
Just a few more races before our two year old stakes races campaign ends
Race 10 Fair Grounds – The $100K Untapable Stakes
2yo fillies going a mile and seventy yards
2-California Angel (4/1) was last seen at The Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf where she tossed her head at the start and ran wide the entire trip. She still garnered a 100 Equibase score, demonstrating her class. That said, we have 73 two year old horses in our stakes database and only five have won going from turf to dirt. 7-Shotgun Hottie (6/1) graduated on turf at Indy in September and a month later scored a win in the slop against allowance company at Keeneland. The track conditions determined that outcome and regardless, based on her last four works, it appears that race took some punch out of this Gun Runner filly. I’m going with the Uncle Mo filly 5-Cocktail Moments. Uncle Mo a 33% win prop with these types and she scored a big Equibase score of 94 in her bow. Based on our resources, one race msw types going into a stakes race and an Equibase score over 90, are an effective 33% prop.
Race 11 Fair Grounds – The $100K Inaugural Gun Runner Stakes
2yo’s going 8.5 furlongs
6-Tejano Twist (3/1) sire is Practical Joke, who has proven not strong in stakes wins with a 1/6 record in graded stakes, and 2/9 in all other stakes races: sporting an overall 3/16 record. 3-Rocket Dawg (3/1) is going to be bet down, and I am going with the Not This Time colt 1-Epicenter (5/2) who has similar last numbers, yet he has an extra race under his belt. I’ll tie Epicenter up with 5-Kevin’s Folly (8/1) who has two G1 attempts and the pedigree to finally put together a race. Look for 4-Surfer Dude (5/1) to be flying late.