RT's Gulfstream Park Picks for Christmas Eve: Maiden Special in the 5th, H. Allen Jerkens Stakes in the 10th

Maiden America 12.24.2021

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Merry Christmas to you all and we will see you on Sunday.

Race 5 Tampa Bay Downs - $31.5 Maiden Special

2yo fillies going seven furlongs

4-Sweet Duchess (9/2) and Amani’s Image (8/5) both hit their highest Equibase scores to date. Given the number of races each has had, Sweet Duchess 4, and Amani’s Image 3, am not a fan of expecting their next time out to improve. 1-Illogical Love (5/2) put a solid effort in her bow at Gulfstream as second in the betting. She led or pressed the pack before tiring and stayed even for third. Researching this race, two year olds are 6% winners from mcl to msw and overall, 7% with all other maidens we have tracked (5321 horses). Pass. There are two Godolphin fillies, as Godolphin just killing it this year with $17.3M with Klaravich next at $7M. 2-Brookwood Hills (10/) may surprise as sire More Than Ready 16% at this distance with second time starting fillies. We know Godolphin usually doesn’t press their first time starters. In her debut, she flashed speed, passed horses and got up for show. She gets blinkers today and the most concern is her marginal work tab leading up to today. The second filly from this ownership group is 3-Grewndola (15/1) who is by Mineshaft, is 16% winners and absolutely abysmal on tapeta and turf. Her first race was on turf and second on tapeta. Her work tab has been solid. She may fool at a price. I am taking Samy Camacho on his second time riding 7-Standup Comedienne (4/1). A Practical Joke filly, a sire whose prodigy have been most effective under one mile, she grabbed the lead in her last before tiring to third. Her last race was Dec. 5 and every other entry today is coming into this off layoff. Camacho, 17% at today’s distance and surface, will likely take her to the front and wire this field.

Race 10 Gulfstream Park – The $100K H. Allen Jerkens Stakes

3yos↑ going the monster distance of two miles on turf

I am taking a shot with Todd Pletcher trained 3-Abaan (4/1), a Will Take Charge (14% at this distance/surface) gelding whose broodmare sire is Tapit, a sire known for breeding distance horses. Luis Saez will be in the irons and we all know what his strategy is – go for the lead, slow the pace, preserve energy and turn on the juice late. Abaan just scored at a mile and three eights, and just missed at a mile and a half. He is in great form and after two allowances post graduation, he is ready to step up to this level

Happy Hunting!