Maiden America Wednesday 12.22: Horse racing Picks for Tampa Bay Downs, Parx, Mahoning Valley, Gulfstream Park

Maiden America 12.22.21

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Race 5 Tampa Bay Downs - $31.5K Maiden Special

2yo’s going approximately one mile

Todd Pletcher-trained and ridden by Pablo Morales, 5-Pioneer Of Medina (2/1) will go off at odds low enough to not bet. Shipping from Gulfstream, his last race scored a 90 Equibase number and today’s class rating is 84. Doing a little research, horses with a 90, 91, or 92 Equibase figure and two races, are a 29% prop. After further digging, of the horses we have that fit that profile, 50% improved in their next race and 50% did not. Even the ones that did not equal, 75% still raced near the last number. Can Pioneer be beat on any given Wednesday? No. However, if so, Pletcher’s other entry 3-Complete Agenda (5/2) could. If I bet, 1-Caminero (7/2) will be it. Saffie trained who ships from Laurel after two races. After two races with Julian Pimental aboard this Lord Nelson colt gets a better jockey with Antonio Gallardo. As with most jockey changes, the running style is going to change. With Caminero, he has been a pressing type and you will likely see Gallardo go for a full out speed and try to wire this field.

Race 5 Parx - $42K Maiden Special

Fillies and mares 3↑ going six furlongs

2-Lady Valentine (5/2) is an Into Mischief 3yo filly who is trained by Todd Pletcher. Of late, she appears to have gone out of form and her works leading into this reflect that. Pass. By the way, when did Todd Pletcher start shipping to Parx? 7-Xenatown (9/2) is by Uncle Lino and is coming into this race as third off a layoff. In her last, she was favored and ran out of gas, collecting show money and scoring her highest Equibase score. Her work leading into this was a solid :48.5, so she is in play. 4-Super Duper Fly (4/1) just ran an 80 Equibase score for Dee Curry and Jeremy Laprida. which is the exact class rating of this, on Nov. 24. A horse running its fourth from a layoff and five previous races nowhere near that score, equals bounce to me. Blame, the sire of 3-Flower Moon (3/1) is a 22% win prop given this races criterion. First off the claim for Linda Rice (20%) she led to the stretch before tiring, settling for place money. Her Equibase score was a 70, so improvement is likely. However, that was a debut maiden claiming race and this step up is likely not to produce a winner. My choice today is 11-Moonchild (8/1) who ships in from Churchill and first off the claim for Penny Pearce (25%). She has shown gameness in her last two and posted three works of 1:01 each leading up to today.

Race 7 Parx - $42K Maiden Special.

2yo’s going six furlongs

9-Cold Walker 6/1) 10-Natavallis Knight (6/1) 1-Mr. Agallas (15/1) 3- Scaramouche (3/1) and 4-Keeping The Edge (4/1) are first time starters and all have this characteristic in their works – they work fine at four furlongs and subpar in five. Pass. 5-Mr Sandman (3/1) appears the one to beat with his last Equibase score of 79 in a class rated 74. He has burned through a lot of money, has not been effective passing horses, and seems to have learned to lose. I am taking a shot with

8-Secret Alliance (5/1) who is a Curlin gelding that posted a work of 1:00 from the gate in October. Since that time, he has posted a :48.4 and 1:01. His dam, Broken Silence, is 33% with first timers. Since this horse has been gelded, I believe that once the connections saw his ability, they torqued down on pushing him too hard – as if they knew of the horse's ability, and without future breeding money to be made, it appears they are hiding this. You will see a big effort today.

Race 5 Mahoning Valley

2yo fillies going 5.5 furlongs

Since I am forever jinxed at this course, take this play with a grain of salt. The winner is likely to be 3-Angel Wings (4/1) who has demonstrated the ability to compete and has the best numbers of this group by a country mile.

Race 5 Gulfstream Park - $35K Claiming

NW3y 3yo’s↑ going six furlongs

I threw this race in because if its large class rating of 101, unusual for claiming races.

I am taking 5-Star Sign (12/1) for two reasons. 1- Edwin Gonzales is in the irons and I am a fan, having made a lot of money with him at Penn. He has moved to a much tougher jockey colony, where he has been successful with a 17% win rate last meet, and a 13% win rate thus far this meet. 2 – He is the only horse to produce triple digit scores in his last two races with 101 and 105. In his third race, he posted a 101 and 4-Self Taught (4/1) ran a 101 that race and hasn’t neared since.

Happy Hunting!