Thursday Aqueduct Picks: God's Tipster handicaps the 4th, 7th & 9th, hopes to celebrate wins with Courvoisier
Replays for yesterday’s races from Tampa Bay Downs can be found here:
Tampa Bay Downs:
Race 1: 7th@ 4.80/1
Race 4: 5th@ 6.50/1
Race 7: 5th@ 7.60/1
We took a few shots with mid-priced runners at Tampa but things didn’t pan out. In Race 1, Master Quinn pressed the early pace but stopped on a dime turning for home and that was that. In Race 4, Tour The World was taken well off the pace and then closed 5 wide turning for home. He finished 5th but was about a neck behind the second place finisher. In Race 7, Hannah Dances - a horse I selected because she had the best closing kick in the field - was put on the lead, dropped back on the turn and then came again, showing interest in the lane while being boxed in. Strange race from that one. Onward !
Let’s take a look at Thursday’s races from Aqueduct where we expect dry weather and mild conditions, considering the season. We’re also expecting a fast main track and a firm turf course.
Thursday picks for Aqueduct:
Race 4: Landslid - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Allowance runners sprint 7 furlongs here and our HEAVY favorite is Radio Days who won her debut as the favorite with a speed figure that would likely win this. At 2/5 odds though I’m taking a stand against as that figure was earned over a sloppy track and after viewing her replay, she seemed to be working awfully hard to get the win. Instead I’m opting for a runner with more experience at a bigger price in Landslid who hails from an unheralded barn and ships in from Parx after earning a new career high speed figure with the stretch in distance to a mile. This trainer is 2 for 3 with runners running for the second time off a similar break like this one and if the 2/5 shot stubs her toe or it turns out her maiden win was because of the slop, Landslid offers nice value here for an improving runner.
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Race 7: Girl Dad - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Fillies and mares go a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the lawn and I happen to be a girl dad but that’s not the only reason why I like Girl Dad here. He owns the highest speed figure over this Aqueduct turf course (her most recent start) and owns the second highest speed figure at the distance. The only runner with a higher speed figure at the distance hasn’t shown an affinity for the surface. Trainer George Weaver has had 7 in-the-money finishes and is overdue for a win at the meet as this runner drops to the lowest level of his career. There also appears to be enough speed in here to set up for his late kick.
Race 9: Courvoisier - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
Overlay city on Courvoisier who ships in from Delaware Park with three straight improving speed figures. This one’s dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner and took the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies and she improved with added distance. Courvoisier’s sire is the legendary Tapit whose progeny also excel at longer distances. He’s shown good speed in all three starts and has fought on each time losing by a nose last time out. Value at 12/1.
Best of luck today to everyone playing Thursday’s races from Aqueduct!