Sunday 11.28 Churchill Downs Picks & Aqueduct Picks: God's Tipster rides Ken McPeek and longshot at the Big A
Saturday’s Race Recap from Churchill Downs:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Churchill Downs can be found here:
Churchill Downs:
Race 1: 7th@ 12.10/1
Race 5: 8th@ 10.40/1
Race 7: 1st@ 2.30/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 9: 5th@ 5.90/1
Race 10: 3rd@ 0.80/1
Race 11: 3rd@ 6.70/1
Our day kicked off with first time starter- Love of My Life looking like she very much needed the start. Breaking near the back she never mounted a serious rally. In Race 5, Magazine Street never delivered at long odds. In Race 7, Bouma gave us a win as she stalked the early pace and drew away to a nice win. In Race 9, we were hoping Hoist the Gold would steal away to an easy early lead but he was pressed all the way by Chattalot and tired in the drive. In the Golden Rod, Sandstone had the perfect trip off the speed but wasn’t able to out-duel Dream Lith for the win. In the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, it was Smile Happy who ran them off their feet. Our selection- White Abarrio ran his race checking in third at 9/1.
Saturday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Aqueduct can be found here:
Aqueduct:
Race 4: 7th@ 11.20/1
Race 8: 3rd@ 5.50/1
Race 9: 6th@ 6.20/1
Mr. Briggs got our day started at Aqueduct and according to my pace figures, he had better early speed than anyone but his rider elected to take back and stalk. Either way he wilted in the lane after looking like he was perfectly positioned til the far turn. In the Discovery Stakes, we had a feeling Speaker’s Corner would get caught. Vindictive ran his eyeballs out but finished about a length behind the top two as Miles D. pulled out the win. In the Long Island Stakes, Harajuku stalked the speed and weakened late.
We wrap up the month of November with Sunday cards from Churchill Downs and Aqueduct. No rain and fast conditions are expected at both tracks. Let’s get to work.
Sunday picks for Churchill Downs:
Race 1: Butterbean - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
When the horse with the top speed figure also has a pace advantage along with the hottest trainer and jockey on the grounds, you’ve got a major overlay at 2/1 odds. Trainer Ken McPeek won 4 races on yesterday’s card and will most likely take the first race. If you can get 2/1, double down.
Race 2: Kitten’s Man - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
Claimers race a mile and a sixteenth and our selection was recently claimed from a 14% winning barn to a 27% winning barn. He now stretches out in distance and while he doesn’t have a ton of experience going a route of ground, he did run a solid mile at Mountaineer Park earlier this year in which the other four runners he faced all came back to win. Top connections and should still be an overlay here.
Race 9: Encourage - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
Maidens run a mile-and-a-sixteenth here and once again we’re siding with Ken McPeek. His 4 winners yesterday impressed us and he’s had a knack for getting his two-year-olds ready so far this year. Encourage ran “encouragingly” first time out at a mile and a sixteenth should move forward with that start under his belt.
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Sunday picks for Aqueduct:
Race 5: Zap Man - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
Today’s Aqueduct longshot play of the day is Zap Man from the barn of Jimmy Jerkens. Zap Man was off a step slow on debut but rallied in the stretch and actually had a fast closing figure. He stretches out in distance today and should prefer the slightly longer distance. His form is muddied up by his subsequent dirt effort but this trainer has gone dirt to turf in a third career start and finishes first, second or third almost half the time at generous odds. The breeding says he’s better than he’s shown and he picks up a strong rider in Trevor McCarthy. Bombs away!
Race 6: Lil Commissioner - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Allowance runners race a mile and while there is some speed signed on here, Lil Commissioner looks like the controlling speed from the rail for a trainer who is red hot right now, winning at a rate of 35% at Aqueduct. And while the jockey’s stats have seen better days, this rider and trainer connect 29% of the time they link up from 58 rides together this year. He’s the one they’ll have to run down.
Best of luck to everyone on this final racing day in November!