Maiden America Sunday 11.28: The Hooptie Handicapper's Churchill Downs Picks – MSWs for 2yos in the 6th & 7th
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Race 6 Churchill Downs - $120K Maiden Special
2yo’s going 6f on dirt
Timeless Joke (7/2) we have thirteen horses in our database that did not win on debut yet scored 90+ in that effort before returning today. Timeless Joke is now our fourteenth. Of the previous thirteen, seven have won and three have run second. I bet Timeless Joke in his debut, and he broke poorly, 2.5 lengths behind the rest of the field, and Leparoux did not panic. Instead, Julian got him settled, moved him between horses and he was full of run, getting nosed by Buckingham Prince. Today he stretches out a furlong, which plays in his favor, and his previous race was an excellent lesson learned from having to eat dirt and grind it out. A flat :48 worktab shows he’s ready to man handle this gang.
Race 7 Churchill Downs $120K Maiden Special
2yo fillies going 6f on dirt
This is one of those races that you think, ‘hmmm … do I go with a Gun Runner first time filly starter at a 39% chance and the trainer is 9% with firsters, as the case for 3-Ari Oakley (9/2) or now that 13-Promises To Dance (2/1) has been given a shot today with the scratch of Mercy Warren, with her excellent race last out, leading the way, to only be caught by a neck, or do I take 1-Jag Warrior (12/1) whose sire, Shackleford is 26% winner with his first starting 2yo female progeny, or do I go with 7-Hazy Command (5/1) who was low in odds last start and got bumped around and had a bad trip, meanwhile she has blistered her works of :59.6, :59.8, :49.8, so she’s taken to the bit, OR, do I go with 5-Madelyn’s Magic (6/1) whom got hung in traffic last out only to just miss by a length? hmmmmmm’???
This race is a tough call. Horses off the pace have historically done well at Churchill and yesterday looked the same. I grew up around this racecourse and never knew it to be speed favoring, so I’ll take a stab with Cory Lanerie on the rail with 1-Jag Warrior.