Garrity's Friday 11.26 Dad's Hat Happy Hour Handicapping picks stakes races at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, Del Mar

We do this almost every Friday, but today’s installment of Dad’s Hat Happy Hour Handicapping is one of our favorites, as it falls right in the middle of the best four-day weekend of the year, and it also marks the beginning of a terrific three-day stretch of excellent late-fall stakes action.

We have four plays today, all in stakes races, and because it’s a special occasion, we are going to stretch our usual time frame a bit: these contests go off over a period of about three hours, which is longer than normal, but which is appropriate for what is for many a relaxing, post-Thanksgiving day at home. We expect fast dirt and firm turf in all races, except where noted below, so pour yourself a glass of one of the delicious libations from our friends at Dad’s Hat Rye -- remember to pace yourself -- and let’s go.

Aqueduct, Race 8, 3:14 pm ET
$150,000 Gio Ponti Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 3-Year-Olds

Seven 3-year-olds line up for the Gio Ponti, which will be run on soft turf. We are wagering that the pace will be swift, and that, combined with the going, has us reaching for a price: 1-Kygo, a German-bred who is making his first U.S. start after a spring and summer campaign in France. He did some good work over there, winning two of his five 2021 starts, and while they were not at an especially high level, he did show that he likes soft going like what he will get today, and he does not face an especially imposing group. Look for him to be toward the rear early and rolling late; we will bet him to win at 12-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $35 to win on 1-Kygo.

Aqueduct, Race 9, 3:43 pm ET
Grade 3 Comely Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies

The Comely drew a field of eight sophomore fillies. The pace on paper looks like it will be fast, which makes morning line choice 6-Army Wife a strong play. She comes off third-place finishes in Grade 1 races in each of her last two starts; she finished behind Malathaat in the Alabama and Clariere in the Cotillion, either of whom would be a massive favorite here. We think Army Wife will thrive in the absence of these rivals, that she is going to win in a big way, and will bet her to win accordingly, even at relatively short 7/5 odds. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 9, $50 to win on 6-Army Wife.

Churchill Downs, Race 11, 5:56 pm ET

Grade 1 Clark Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 3 & Up

The Grade 1 Clark is the biggest race of the day, and it drew an excellent group of eight horses. The field is bookended by the favorites: 1-Midnight Bourbon drew the rail, and 8-Maxfield is outside. We’re all in on the former, as Midnight Bourbon is in excellent form, has speed and a good finishing kick -- always a lethal combination -- and seems assured of a good trip with his inside post position. He finished second in each of his last two starts, to Essential Quality in the Travers and Hot Rod Charlie in the Pennsylvania Derby; with neither of those two superb animals running today, Midnight Bourbon is going to the winner’s circle. We will bet him to win at 8/5, and we will do so enthusiastically. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $50 to win on 1-Midnight Bourbon.

Del Mar, Race 7, 6:33 pm ET

Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup, 1 ½ miles, Turf, 3 & Up

The Hollywood Turf Cup, run around three turns on the Del Mar turf course, drew a field of seven. The West coast-based horses capable of running this mile and a half distance have been weak all year, which is one of the reasons why 7-Rockemperor, a Chad Brown trainee who was last seen running eighth in the Breeders Cup Turf, has been installed as the 8/5 morning line favorite: Two starts back he beat a pretty good group of horses in the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont Park, a far better race than any of the other six entrants have ever run.

Still, Rockemperor has been extremely inconsistent, with the Turf Classic his only stakes victory in his last ten starts, and in this spot, looks like a terrible play, as he’s a stone-cold closer in a race that will probably have a very slow early pace. He’s an underlay, and we are betting against him.

We like 6-Acclimate. He is going to get the lead, and we think he will do so easily enough that he will be able to stay the race’s 12 furlongs, a similar scenario to when he won the San Juan Capistrano Stakes at Santa Anita in June, when he went right to the lead, stayed there while setting very moderate fractions, and stayed in front through the wire. That race was at a mile-and-three-quarters, which is evidence that given the right pace scenario, Acclimate can win a long race in wire-to-wire fashion. We will bet him to win at 4-1. The bet: Del Mar, Race 7, $40 to win on 6-Acclimate.

That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.