Thanksgiving Churchill Downs Picks: God's Tipster handicaps 5 races, including the $500K Falls City
Bonny South races today at Churchill Downs.@ChurchillDowns on Twitter

Thanksgiving Churchill Downs Picks: God's Tipster handicaps 5 races, including the $500K Falls City

God's Tipster's first post is at 12:26 pm EST.

Wednesday’s Race Recap from Churchill Downs:

(All odds US)

Replays for yesterday’s races from Churchill Downs can be found here:

Churchill Downs:

Race 2: 7th@ 11.20/1

Race 3: 2nd@ 2.90/1

Race 5: 4th@ 1.40/1

We started our week with Senorita Karlita - our longshot for the day stalking the pace in Race 2 but she wilted in the lane. No Bueno. In Race 3, My Bets got the fast place she needed to close into but was rolling just a bit to late losing by a neck. In Race 5, Eastside Cool got to the front and set an easy enough pace but was swarmed turning for home. Fought on gamely finishing 4th by about 3/4 of a length in a blanket finish.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone Stateside. The unofficial beginning of the holiday season begins with turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing, cranberry sauce and some outstanding racing action from Churchill Downs. There’s a 90% chance of rain in the forecast so we’re expecting gravy-like conditions. Grab a fork and a knife and let’s dig into some deep-fried races with all the trimmings!

Thanksgiving picks for Churchill Downs:

Race 3: A.K. Safari - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)

Claimers race a mile and there are three speed runners in this group. Our selection - A.K. Safari comes from off the pace. He drops to his lowest claiming level since last August and retains jockey Rafael Bejarano, who’s winning at 20% this meet for a 15% winning trainer. His most recent start has already produced two next out winners from three to race back again and this runner is tied for top speed figure at the distance. He’ll get overlooked but his speed figures are right there with the best of these and the pace seems to set up for him.

Race 9: Gilded Ruler - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)

Maidens sprint 6 furlongs here and I’m taking a shot with a first time starter. Gilded Ruler races for top connections who win together 21 percent of the time and this barn wins with 25% of their two-year-olds. This runner has a few speedy works, including a few five furlong drills (something I like to see) and a sparkling 4 furlong workout in 47.1 breezing from the gate on Oct. 10. This runner has several workouts that match up with workouts on another debut winner named Rocket Dawg for this trainer. Major threat first time out.

Race 10: Laughing Boy - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)

Hard-knocking group of allowance runners square off here and Laughing Boy is one who has progressed nicely for trainer Ken McPeek. Laughing Boy beat a tough field of allowance runners last time out by over two lengths and looked impressive doing so. Trainer and jockey win 24% of the time together and this runner has worked well since his last race. Value at 5/1.

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Race 11: Cheetara - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)

Todays feature race is the Grade 2 Falls City Stakes at a mile-and-an-eighth and features a showdown between runners like Crystal Ball, Bonny South, Army Wife and Envoutante who are all a cut below Grade 1 types. None of those runners I mentioned is a confirmed front runner but our selection - Cheetara is. And with the likelihood of a sloppy track, it’s very possible Cheetara gets loose early and proves tough to run down. This runner has been facing lesser company but three of our likely top four favorites are exiting the Grade 1 Spinster where they all let Letruska get away with an easy lead and weren’t able to run her down. Nobody’s confusing Cheetara for Letruska but it does speak to the runners in here and the fact that nobody was able to get close early and it cost them late. Deja vu at long odds?

Race 12: Gambler’s Fallacy - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)

Starter allowance race at a mile with a good amount of speed signed on. That would play into the hands of Gambler’s Fallacy who has the best closing figures in the field. This runner is one of several racing today for jockey Brian Hernandez (21%) that we’ve picked and his work tab looks like he’s ready to roll. Trainer James DiVito is winning at 17% this year. From off the pace!

Best of luck to everyone playing Thanksgiving Thursday’s races from Churchill Downs!

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