Garrity's Saturday Stakes for 11.20 has Aqueduct, Churchill Downs and Del Mar picks, including the Red Smith

It’s a quiet Saturday, as far as stakes racing goes, which is unsurprising, as the long Thanksgiving weekend, which has always been a big one in horse racing, is just a few days away. We’ve managed to cobble together plays in five races, at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, and Del Mar, and expect fast dirt and firm turf in all of them. Let’s go.

Aqueduct, Race 7, 2:43 pm ET
Maiden Special Weight, 7 furlongs, Dirt, 2-Year-Olds

A dozen juvenile maidens line up for this 7 furlong sprint. 3-Matt Doyle is a strong play: he has two career starts, and he ran well in both of them, running fifth in his debut at Saratoga in September, and second at Belmont Park a month ago. He stretches out in this spot, going from 6 to 7 furlongs, which will help him, we think, as will the addition of blinkers, which he gets for the first time. But what really has us fancying his chances here are speed figures: he earned virtually identical figs in his first two career starts, and when young horses do this, when after a good first start they run equally well in their second start, it is a powerful sign that they will run even better in their third. That makes Matt Doyle the pick here, because if he improves off his last race, the rest of the field is running for second money. We think that makes him an excellent play at 9/2; we will bet him to win. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 7, $40 to win on 3-Matt Doyle.

Aqueduct, Race 9, 3:43 pm ET

Grade 2 Red Smith Stakes, 1 ⅜ miles, Turf, 3 & Up

A good group of ten lines up for the Red Smith, a Grade 2 stakes at 11 furlongs on the Aqueduct turf. Nine of them have either little or no early speed, which makes us fancy 7-Channel Cat, who should go right to the front, get little pressure there, and gallop home while the horses behind him are spinning their wheels trying to catch him. He has the most natural speed in the field, he runs well on the lead, as he showed when he won the Grade 1 Man o’ War Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion at Belmont Park in May, and he also adds blinkers, which is an indication to us that jockey John Velazquez is going for the lead right out of the gate. We will bet Channel Cat to win at 4-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 9, $40 to win on 7-Channel Cat.

Churchill Downs, Race 8, 4:36 pm ET

Allowance/Optional Claiming, 6 ½ furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

This second-level allowance at Churchill Downs drew a field of seven. We’re all in on favored 4-Center Aisle, a 4-year-old filly with a world-class pedigree (she’s by top stallion Into Mischief, out of an Empire Maker mare), who won her last race, which was at Churchill Downs on October 15, very impressively. That was a good race any way you slice it, but it was even better for being her first race in nearly a year. She’s posted a couple of swift morning workouts in the past month, which shows that her comeback race didn’t take too much out of her; that is a a sign she will run even better today, which makes her a strong pick. We will play her accordingly, and bet her to win at 8/5. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $50 to win on 4-Center Aisle.

Churchill Downs, Race 10, 5:36 pm ET
Grade 3 Chilukki Stakes, 1 mile, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

Nine line up to run a mile in the Chilukki. We like 3-Matera, who comes from a hot barn -- trainer Brad Cox’s runners have been winning at a good clip of late -- and who also has the best last-race speed figure in the field. Even better is the fact that she’s posted a couple of sizzling morning works in the past few weeks. This is a signal that she’s sitting on a big race, and another positive is that this one-turn mile distance is right up her alley. She probably will not get the early lead, but she has enough speed to get a position right behind the pacesetters, and to win with a big forward move as the field straightens out down the stretch. We will bet her to win at 3-1. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 10, $40 to win on 3-Matera.

Del Mar, Race 8, 7:00 pm ET
Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 3 & Up

There is quite a bit of speed among the eight older horses who line up for the Native Diver, enough that a hot pace, and winner coming from behind, looks likely. That makes the choice the stretch-running 8-Kiss Today Goodbye, whose race record is a pretty good illustration of the difficulties facing closers on the dirt: when there is a quick pace in front of him, he makes up a lot of ground and runs well, as he did winning the San Antonio Stakes at Santa Anita last December; when the pace in front of him is slow, his late rally is much less effective, and he finishes far back, as he did in his last start, when he ran last in the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar in July. We think Kiss Today Goodbye is going to get a fast pace today, which makes him very dangerous: he will probably be last early, but we think he will be first where it matters. We will bet him to win at 5-1. The bet: Del Mar, Race 8, $35 to win on 8-Kiss Today Goodbye.

That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.