Thursday 11.18 Aqueduct Picks: God's Tipster bets four races, including a long shot in the 2nd
Wednesday’s Race Recap from Churchill Downs:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Churchill Downs can be found here:
Churchill Downs:
Race 1: 1st@ 0.90/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 3: 2nd@ 0.30/1
Race 5: 1st@ 2.50/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 9:1st@ 1.50/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Three win day! 😄
Our day began on a winning note with Hayden’s Havoc in Race 1 dueling for the early lead and drawing away decisively in the stretch. We got odds of 4/5 here in the States so I’m hoping a few members got closer to the 2/1 morning line. In Race 3, Steely Danza got beaten to the lead by the 6 as the heavy favorite and wasn’t able to run that one down in the stretch. In retrospect this was a bad bet at short odds. Our only loser of the day. I’ll take ownership of that one. In Race 5, Kasserine Pass gave us our second winner of the day going to the lead and drawing away at odds of 5/2 here in the States. In Race 9, Purrfect Love stalked a fast pace set by Wicked Ecstasy and proved best in a drive to the wire.
Let’s head to beautiful South Ozone Park where we’ll have sunny skies and chilly temperatures at Aqueduct with a fast main track and a firm turf course. We saw a few longshots click on Saturday at Aqueduct and we’re after our share. Six of today’s nine races are on turf as the turf season comes to a close in another few weeks. Let’s get started!
Thursday picks for Aqueduct:
Race 1: Balthus - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
Maidens race a mile and three sixteenths on the lawn in a race that could easily be confused with a Saratoga maiden race. Quality runners up and down and my selection is a second time starter named Balthus who had a little trouble on the first turn of a 1 1/4 debut effort and was only really asked for run late in the game first time out. He races for world class connections of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz who’ve combined for a whopping 39% so far this meet. I like the fact that Irad stays here when he probably had the option of riding Conglomerate for Klaravich Stables and he took money first time out. Since his first start he’s been given 7 workouts. They’ve got him plenty legged up for this and I’m looking for a much improved effort today from this well bred son of the great Galileo.
Race 2: Polka Prince - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
Our longshot for Thursday is racing in a NY bred maiden race on turf and of the runners who have already gone to post, none are world-beaters. Polka Prince is interesting in that he debuts for a barn that’s won with 2 of their first 6 starters at the meet and has a 50% in the money %. Trainer Mike Maker debuts this one for Three Diamonds Farms - his top barn and looking back over the last five years - at his first time starters debuting on turf in today’s racing circuit with today’s rider, he wins 20% of the time and has hit the board 60% of the time (just missed 80%). He also lured the country’s leading rider - Irad Ortiz, which says this first time starter might be well meant. This runner’s dam had strong numbers on turf and foaled a three time turf winner in Mopolka. Worth a shot at 12/1 odds.
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Race 4: Sidd Finch - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Turf runners go a mile and a sixteenth and this is our first of two runners from George Weaver I’ve picked today. I’ll be honest in that I usually don’t like his horses but today he’s got a few that look good. Sidd Finch owns the field’s second best overall speed figure on turf and shares the best speed figure at the track and distance with another in the field but that other runner (Bar Fourteen) breaks from the outside and will have plenty of pace pressure while the race seems to set up well for Sidd Finch. Good value at 6/1.
Race 8: Battle Scars - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
New York bred allowance runners go a mile and a sixteenth on grass here and a few of these have been beating up on one another so I’m taking the new face - Battle Scars who ships in from Hawthorne where he just raced in the 100k Hawthorne Derby. While he didn’t win that day, he did win his first two starts and he races now for George Weaver who has won with 20% of his turf runners here at Aqueduct over the last five years. As a matter of fact, Weaver started a half sister to this runner named My Lips Are Sealed almost a year ago to the day and that runner won for these same connections on the Aqueduct turf course. And that one also broke from a wide post (10). This one's Hawthorne Derby looks like enough.
Best of luck to everyone playing Thursday’s races from Aqueduct!