God's Tipster's Sunday 11.14 Aqueduct picks and Churchill Downs picks – after a 3-win Saturday
Saturday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Aqueduct can be found here:
Race 5: 1st@ 5.00/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 7: 4th@ 5.50/1
In Race 5 at Aqueduct we had Ricky’s Revenge get our day started stalking the heavy favorite from the outside before taking over and holding on for the 5/1 win. In Race 7, after a downpour and a weather delay, Awillaway posted a 46/1 upset while Happy Sophia checked in 4th.
Saturday’s Race Recap from Churchill Downs:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Churchill Downs can be found here:
Race 2: 1st@ 0.70/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 4: 1st@ 2.00/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 5: 5th@ 3.10/1
Race 6: 4th@ 2.80/1
Race 11: 7th@ 11.10/1
Ring Me Darling rang up a WIN for us in Race 2 at Churchill Downs to get our day started. She sat off the pace and drew away in the stretch for a smart win over Surf Spa. In Race 4, Absolute Love had a similar trip to our Race 2 winner stalking and pouncing for the WIN! In Race 6, Lady Arsinoe broke well enough but dropped far back and started moving far too late closing to grab 5th. The complete opposite of her debut effort where she broke sharply. In Race 6, Ginnsu Warrior (a horse the paddock announcer said looked “fat” ran like he needed to shed a few pounds checking in 4th. Our final race of the day was Race 11 where we went with a first time starter named Schmooze but this looked like a practice run for this runner. Taken to the back of the pack and was never really asked for run.
We’re heading back to Aqueduct & Churchill Downs for Sunday’s race cards. At Churchill Downs there’s a 40% chance of rain but with no turf racing this meet, that shouldn’t impact the races much. Handicapped two selections on the day. At Aqueduct we expect cloudy skies and chilly temperatures but fast and firm conditions.
Let’s get to work:
Sunday picks for Aqueduct:
Race 6: Scherzando - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
NY bred maidens race 6 furlongs here and with Swinton and BC Glory Days likely to battle for the lead, I’ll take the improving Scherzando to close from off the pace to post the mild upset. Last time out Scherzando ran the best race of his career by far and I always love seeing that lightbulb come on with these young runners. He was closing in on a loose on the lead winner last time out and this time he should have a better pace setup. 4 works since his last race should have him tightened up. 6/1 sounds good to me.
Race 7: Stanhope - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
NY bred turf allowance runners sprint 6 furlongs and none are faster early than Stanhope. Now he does take blinkers off today which should temper some of his runaway speed but trainer Rudy Rodriguez wins at 19% with that move and has a 30% strike rate with jockey Jose Lezcano. While the rest of these have been bumping heads facing lower-level state red company, Stanhope has been facing open company runners. Interesting that they claimed him back in June for $35k and haven’t finished better than 4th in four starts since but this typically aggressive barn doesn’t drop him into claiming company which is a good sign.
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Sunday picks for Churchill Downs:
Race 8: Home Brew - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
It’s been a while since I’ve given out a two point pick but Home Brew’s replay of his only start impressed me. Buried down on the rail for the first half of the race near the back of the pack behind a moderate pace, Home Brew kicked it into high gear and professionally navigated his way through traffic to win his debut going away. I sorted through the rest of that day’s races and only one runner on the whole day ran closing splits as fast as his were and that runner puts up speed figures in the mid to high 70’s. A number like that destroys these. While I don’t love trainer switches, trainer Brad Cox is one of the best in the country with this kind of move. Should get a fair pace to run at and if he runs as impressive as he did on debut, he is a future stakes winner.
Race 9: Loved Reiko - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
Last Autumn these same connections debuted a full sister to this runner, named Illiogami, on turf where she ran two “meh“ races before being switched to dirt here at Churchill Downs and running three strong races from off the pace, winning two of her first three starts before hitting graded stakes company. Loved Reiko put forth a similar first start on turf and now hits the main track for the first time. Working well enough on the main track and with plenty of pace signed on here we’re hoping winning on dirt is in the bloodlines for this runner. Value as an upset threat.
Good luck to everyone playing Sunday’s races from Churchill Downs!