Garrity's 11/14 Sunday Horse Racing features Aqueduct Picks, and bets for Woodbine and Churchill Downs
Sir Winston won the 2019 Belmont Stakes. Today Garrity is betting against him at Woodbine.NYRA

Garrity's 11/14 Sunday Horse Racing features Aqueduct Picks, and bets for Woodbine and Churchill Downs

First post is 3:13 pm ET. Picks include two stakes races.

Both the racing calendar and the weather, at least here along the eastern seaboard of the U.S., are starting to take on the appearance of winter, of the dark months between the glories of autumn and the expectation of spring. But while winter, as the saying goes, is certainly coming, it is not here quite yet, and we have four plays for this late-fall Sunday, two turf races in New York, a Grade 2 in Ontario, and a dirt allowance race in Kentucky. We expect fast going in all, except at Aqueduct, where the turf will have some cut in it, something on the order of good. Let’s go.

Aqueduct, Race 7, 3:13 pm ET
Allowance, 6 furlongs, Turf, New York-breds 3 & Up

A dozen state-breds line up for the 7th at Aqueduct, a first-level allowance at 6 furlongs on turf. Enough of them run the same way -- fast early and slow late -- that the race should set up for a closer, and the one we like is 9-War Terminator, who finished strongly to break his maiden in his first career start, which was in April, then mounted a similar rally two weeks later, at this allowance level, to finish second, just a neck behind the winner. He’s been away since, and the time off is a concern, but trainer Jonathan Thomas is skilled with horses coming off the bench (25% win rate with horses laid off over six months), and we think the race shape will favor him. Look for him to be mid-pack early, and rolling late; we will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 7, $40 to win on 9-War Terminator.

Aqueduct, Race 8, 3:44 pm ET
$150,000 Winter Memories Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 3-Year-Old Fillies

The days of turf racing are waning in New York: the New York Racing Association will keep running on the grass for as long as the weather allows them to, but the extended forecast suggests that this will not be for much longer. It seems fitting, then, to celebrate the Winter Memories, an eight-and-a half-furlong stakes for sophomore fillies, as we may not see this kind of race for many months.

The dozen evenly matched entrants make it a good race, from both a wagering and sporting perspective. The fillies as a group look to have little early speed, so the pick is 10-Invincible Gal, who should get the early lead, and just might be able to steal the race on the front end, and avoid the kind of traffic trouble that seems sure to affect those trying to catch her. We think that Invincible Gal takes the Winter Memories in wire-to-wire fashion, and will bet her to win at 5-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $40 to win on 10-Invincible Gal.

Woodbine, Race 8, 4:25 pm ET

Grade 2 Autumn Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Synthetic, 3 & Up

Eight go in the Autumn Stakes. The favorite is a name casual racing fans may remember: 3-Sir Winston won the Belmont Stakes two years ago, and is 9/5 off a couple of strong races the synthetic surface at Woodbine, in August and October, respectively. But we prefer 1-Special Forces, who actually beat Sir Winston in the Grade 3 Durham Cup a month ago, which was the most recent start for both. Special Forces seems to be in a bit better form, and at 5/2 is a better price; we will bet him to win. The bet: Woodbine, Race 8, $40 to win on 1-Special Forces.

Churchill Downs, Race 8, 4:36 pm ET

Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 2-Year-Olds

Eight go in the first-level allowance dirt sprint that goes as the 8th at Churchill Downs. The pick is 5-Blue Kentucky, who returns to sprinting after doing a speed-and-fade in a mile race on Oct. 31. We think the shorter distance will be just what the doctor ordered for this colt from the Wayne Catalano barn, and the fact that he caught a pretty weak field will help as well. Look for him to press the pace early, and to prevail by grinding his way to the front at the top of the stretch. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $40 to win on 5-Blue Kentucky.

That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.

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