Friday 11.12 Churchill Downs Picks: God's Tipster handicaps the 6th, 8th and 9th races
Racing in the slop at Churchill Downs.@ChurchillDowns on Twitter

Friday 11.12 Churchill Downs Picks: God's Tipster handicaps the 6th, 8th and 9th races

Thursday's rain is gone and the track should dry out nicely.

Thursday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct:

(All odds US)

Replays for yesterday’s races from Aqueduct can be found here:


Race 1: 5th@ 10.10/1

Race 5: 7th@ 27.70/1

Race 6: 8th@ 29.90/1

We went longshot hunting on opening day at Aqueduct and came up empty handed. Duckphat started our Thursday in Race 1. They left Caumsett alone on a loose lead and after setting a slow pace there was no running him down. Duckphat came with his late run but since everyone else was also moving late he could only manage 5th. In Race 5, Opt was held off the early pace but only offered a mild bid in the stretch checking in 7th at long odds. In Race 6 our first time starter looked like she needed the race checking in 8th. Onward.

With the rain that was at Churchill Downs on Thursday moving north to Aqueduct on Friday we’ll move back to Churchill Downs for Friday’s card. Despite the Thursday rain, we’re expecting fast conditions for Friday’s card, as Churchill Downs has one of the fastest draining tracks. Let’s take a look.

Friday picks for Churchill Downs:

Race 6: Sermononthemount - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)

Allowance runners race a mile here and I expect there to be a hot pace in this one. This race is very similar to Wednesday’s 7th race where Tom Amoss had a runner, Defeater, who stalked a fast pace and turned on the afterburners in the stretch to draw away to a lengthy win. I’m hoping history repeats as Sermononthemount has a similar running style and also catches a field loaded with early speed. Like Defeater, this runner has been bumping heads with the Grade 3 and ungraded stakes types since he was claimed by Tom Amoss back in March. He already got a win at the track vs older and his second place finish in the Indiana Derby where he defeated Fulsome was a nice race. Value - pace play.

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Race 8: Willful Woman - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)

Steve Asmussen’s cold streak has officially come to an end as he’s winning at 21% again. This runner comes off a May layoff where she ran a strong second to repeat winner Army Wife in the Black Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico. This runner has been working well and she’s bred to be even better than she’s shown us thus far. Note - both times she’s started with Lasix have been winning efforts. 3/1 looks like value.

Race 9: Don’t Forget - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)

Our HEAVY favorite here will be Malpais who will likely be every bit of the 6/5 morning line off his 7 wins in a row against cheaper but there are a few reasons to take a stand against him here at low odds. He’s been beating up on softer company in his last few races with four and five horse fields in three of his last six races at lower level tracks. Today he’ll have some pace pressure and has to navigate 7 furlongs for the first time since April 2019. Don’t Forget comes to us from the barn of Robertino Diodoro, who’s winning at a red hot 24% this year. This runner is 2 for 2 at the distance and finished a fast closing second to our morning line favorite at 6 furlongs earlier this year. An extra furlong should work in his favor.

Good luck today to everyone playing Friday’s races from Churchill Downs!

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