Thursday 11.11 Aqueduct Picks: God's Tipster picks three races at Opening Day of the Big A
Wednesday’s Race Recap from Churchill Downs:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Churchill Downs can be found here:
Churchill Downs:
Race 3: 5th@ 2.40/1
Race 6: 1st@ 2.00/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 7: 2nd@ 12.20/1
Race 9: 7th@ 15.40/1
Spy A Star got our week kicked off in Race 3 like a lead balloon. We expected her to be last early but she never mounted a serious rally checking home 5th. In Race 6, Barber Road proved the old adage - “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em”. He beat us last time and looked good doing it so we jumped on his bandwagon today and boy did he deliver. This one stalked the early pace and drew away to win by 6 impressive lengths. This one has really turned the corner with the addition of blinkers. In Race 7, Hunt The Front lagged far far behind the field before making a nice move into 2nd for a 12/1 shot but wasn’t catching the winner - Defeater. In Race 9, Boca Boy gunned to the front as we had hoped but wilted in the lane.
With a 90% chance of rain at Churchill Downs we’ll move our tack to Aqueduct for their opening day card. The New York racing circuit will be racing at Aqueduct until late April 2022 when Belmont Park opens again. We expect cloudy skies and mild temperatures with a fast main track and a firm turf course. Let’s get to opening day at Aqueduct!
Thursday picks for Aqueduct:
Race 1: Duckphat - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
Turf maidens run a mile here and for a turf-route race we’re expecting a fair amount of pace. Our likely favorite is Saratoga Gaze and she might end up being best here, after running a strong second first time out but she’s being asked to run two furlongs further than the race she just finished second in with a few of these pressing her.That makes Duckphat interesting. She began her career on dirt and didn’t show much in four starts but has come into her own with the move to turf. Last time out she closed nicely in a race with very little early pace. With today’s expected added pace and the low profile connections ensuring high odds, Duckphat is our pick to upset the opener at Aqueduct.
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Race 5: Opt - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
New York bred allowance runners race a mile on turf here and our heavy, morning line favorite has actually lost to our selection before, albeit two years ago but Opt has run his career best races right around this distance and has one of the strongest closing kicks in the field. His last two races were turf sprints - not really his preferred distance. Low profile connections ensure a high price - third time off a layoff resulted in a career best figure the last time he did that.
Race 6: Gem Mine - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
Maidens sprint 6 furlongs here and we’re taking a shot with a bomb first time starter on grass by sire Kantharos whose progeny I LOVE sprinting on the lawn. Trainer Christophe Clement has won with 3 of 4 first time starters sprinting on turf at Aqueduct over the last five years with a whopping $10.35 ROI, with an average payoff of $17.80. Bullet workout over the grass and Castellano and Clement are two for two since joining forces. Value at 15/1.
Good luck to everyone playing Thursday’s races from Aqueduct!