Wednesday 11.10 Churchill Downs Picks: Bets for the 6th, 7th and 9th races
We are back for another week of racing. One fun fact as we close the curtain on Breeder’s Cup weekend. A $20 show parlay on our ten selections on Breeder’s Cup Saturday would’ve returned a WHOPPING $45,931.59. That doesn’t even include the 25/1 shot we had run third in the Juvenile Turf Sprint or Juju’s Map finishing second on Breeder’s Cup Friday. Those are the kind of statistics you won’t see in my Betting Gods ROI so it’s important to share since I put a tremendous amount of work into that race card.
We’re back to Churchill Downs for some Wednesday racing action where we expect sunny skies, mild conditions and a fast main track. Let’s get to work!
Wednesday picks or Churchill Downs:
Race 6: Barber Road - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)
Starter allowance runners race 6 1/2 furlongs and there are some significant pace players in this field and then there’s our selection - Barber Road (not to be confused with Barbaro) who actually defeated a runner we picked last time out - Lemonadeatthelatch- trained by the Breeder’s Cup Classic winning Brad Cox. Barber Road was allowed to set a controlled pace that day and drew off in the stretch with the addition of blinkers. Cutting back in distance with a speed duel in front of him should help set up for a closing kick from Barber Road.
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Race 7: Hunt The Front - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Allowance runners race a mile and this is a tricky race. Our 2/1 morning line favorite, Defeater, comes from a barn that was ice cold in Keeneland and has started off 0 for 7 in the money at Churchill Downs. We’ve got another runner shipping in from Canada with blinkers on as a new gelding and he’s not one I’m trusting at 3/1 morning line either. Hunt the Front is a bit interesting. Of course trainer Nick Zito hasn’t won many races in the last few years but he’s already finished second and third with 5 runners, so his horses are hitting the board. This one returned from an extended break to not embarrass himself first time off the shelf and has the kind of closing kick that will benefit from a hot pace. 8/1
Race 9: Boca Boy - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
Sprinters will blaze five furlongs in this allowance race and on the surface it’s a pretty evenly matched field of 8 based on speed figures. When you compare “best speed figures on dirt”, it narrows the field down to 4 or 5 but the speed nearest the rail appears to be the fastest speed in the race - Boca Boy. This runner drops from a MUCH tougher spot at a distance two furlongs longer than today’s distance. 5 furlongs on the dirt isn’t a distance we see very often here in the States but Boca Boy has the top speed figure for the 5 1/2 furlong distance by a full 9 points. There are others in here that may be better at the more traditional 6 furlong distance but at 5 furlongs I'm looking for Boca Boy to blast away and not look back.
Good luck to everyone playing Wednesday’s races from Churchill Downs!