RT's Friday Breeders Cup Picks: Picking 2yo races all year has set him up for race day for the juveniles
(Non-Maiden) Maiden America Breeders Cup Edition
11.05.21
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Del Mar Race 6 - $1M G2 Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes
2yo’s going 5 furlongs on turf
Focusing on horses that are attuned to 5 & 5.5 furlong sprints on turf, I am led to 1-Twilight Jet (15/1) who is 4/2-0-1 at the distance, 3-Go Bears Go (15/1) who is 2/1-1, 4-Vertiginous (20/1) 3/1-1-0, Twilight Gleaming 3/2-1-0, 7-Armor (6/1) 4/2-1-0, One Timer (4/1) 1/1-0-0, Time To Party (15/1) 3/1-2-0, and 11-Derrynane (12/1) 1/1-1-0. According to my colleague, Chris Garrity (@belmostmickey) here, all the turf horses racing in California "have been abysmal," so that removes One Timer and Time To Party. Out of the remainder, I am going with 7-Amor who has two near misses at Group 1 races and the speed figures to win today.
Del Mar Race 7 - $1M G1 Juvenile Fillies Stakes
2yo’s going 8.5 furlongs on dirt
6-Echo Zulu (4/5), Going to pass on this favorite for several reasons. 1) the pace will be pressed for her with 5-Juju’s Map (5/2) and 2-Hidden Connection (5/2) near and this is something she has never faced. 2) horses without two turn experience in BC events have fared poorly. 3) her breeding does not have what it takes to get the distance. I tend to look at the dam in these races and his, Letgomyecho never ran more than a mile and that was one turn. Also, she was more of a turf horse than dirt. 4) Gun Runner progeny are 0/4 in all stakes at 8.5 furlongs. 2-Hidden Connection – loved this filly from her first race at Colonial just missing the track record by .002 seconds. She shipped to Churchill and took down the G3 Pocahontas by nine lengths in 30.5 seconds in her final fractions; besting this group by more than a second per runner at the distance. Reviewing that race, Reylu Guiterrez had her under a hammer lock until he hit the stretch and she wound it up. She will be a tough out. Juju’s Map – Brad Cox’s intentions of this race are clear with her :59 workout of late. She is going to go out early and not let Echo Zulu get too far from her. Given the pace pressure these two will put on each other, this will set up the rest for a closing bid. 3-Sequist (15/1) of the six graded stakes with fillies this year, according to our database, only one has won with a greater than 90 last Equibase score and that was Juju’s Map. She garnered a 91 her previous race and that day hit a 95. The other two were Echo Zulu who entered with a 99 in her last and ran a 91 that day. The last three were in the 80’s and all three went at or over 93. This, and the pace, puts Sequist right in the thick of things at the end. In her last, she ran two wide when until entering the stretch, and there she came 8 wide, and rallied from 7.5 lengths off to 4.5 to fight gamely with Distinctltypossible, just missing place money by ½ length. With only two runners coming out of that race, one has a win and with an improvement in Equibase score. I am going to take Hidden Connection with Sequist under that choice and I will probably exacta box those two.
Race 8 - $1M Juvenile Fillies Turf
2yo’s going one mile on turf
Of the Euros in this race, and because the others have all had increasing Equibase numbers and all horses throw in a dog between two and five races. 9-Hello You (10/1) and 12-Malavath (8/1) have taken a decrease and have both returned to greater numbers. Of the remaining, I like 1-Pizza Bianca (5/1), a Woodbine shipper, 4-Turnerloose (12/1), 9-Koala Princess (6/1), 11-Haughty (10/1) and 14-California Angel (8/1). California Chrome, California Angel’s sire, has not produced a stakes winning 2yo filly other than California Angel. The same is true for Turnerloose, who is by Nyquist. Koala Princess’ sire More Than Ready, has produced 2 of 8 filly 2yo stakes winners during their 2yo season, including Selflessly, who won the G2 Miss Grillo at Belmont. Empire Maker, Haughty’s sire, has produced no stakes winners, but there are only two runners from the criteria. Pizza Bianca’s sire, Fastnet Rock, has no others than her that have entered stakes races with the criteria listed. Of the two Euro’s, I have no readily available European data on their sires offspring. That said, Hello You has gotten Ryan Moore off in favor of Malavath, so I’ll pass. Malavath is by Mehmas, sire to Going Global, making her ½ sister. 3yo Going Global is a 5/6 winner in the US and slated to run Saturday in the 3rd at Del Mar, the Goldikova stakes. Now, where does that leave the choice? I am going with Ryan Moore on Malavath. Her class and upside to improve is greater than the rest. I do like Haughty’s works coming into this and feel she is sitting on a big effort.
Race 9 - $2M Grade 1 Juvenile Stakes
2yo’s going 8.5 furlongs on dirt
This race should be more interesting than those who squarely believe the chalk is going to run off with it. 1-Jack Christopher (9/5) is by Munnings, whose 2yo progeny have a very pedestrian 11% win rate in first routes. Yes, one mile at some tracks is a route, but, in my mind, a two turn distance is a route, and this guy has yet to prove he can pull it off. 12-Corniche (5/2) Bob Baffert is 6/10 with sire Quality Road 2yo’s boys. Only two of the ten have a route race in them and Corniche is one, who won going away last out. Mike Smith is tough to knock in this race having ridden him twice, with his last drawing post ten in a ten horse race. Corniche, a big, long strider at 26.74 feet per stride, has yet to hit his best. He will be a tough out. 11-Tough To Tame (30/1) is a tough closer and worth a shot at a price, given his final fraction of 31.72 in the Iroquois while just missing by a neck. Add in works of 1:00 and :48 coming into this makes an eyebrow raise. 7-Giant Game (30/1) coming off the pace in his last to win going away, this son of Giant’s Causeway torched his last fractions going :30.07. he will have plenty of early speed to show his late kick and has a shot. Two recent :48 works look good. 3-Oviatt Class (20/1) Desormeaux brothers may have a live one with this Bernardini son who had a rotten rail trip last time, getting stuck yet outpacing both Corniche and Pappacap in the final strides. :59 and 1:00 works his last two and it appears he is rounding into form. I will not be surprised if he takes this. I am going to take a shot on the Japanese horse, 2-Jasper Great (15/1) who blew the field away by 10 in his debut and only race, hitting a 110 Equibase number. Of the two favorites, I lean toward Corniche. Out of the entire mentioned, and I believe the pace is too much for Corniche and Jack Christopher I will play several exotics with the two favorites underneath and Giant Game, Jasper Great and Oviatt Class atop of them.
Race 10 - $1M Juvenile Turf Stakes
2yo’s going one mile on turf
Although 14-Dubawi Legend (4/1) looks like the one to beat, I am taking a gamblers dumbass move with my heart and bet 4-Tiz The Bomb (8/1), who I have bet and won in his last three.
Happy Hunting.