God's Tipster's Friday Breeders Cup Picks: No odds-on runners in these picks, plus a longshot in the Juvenile
Thursday’s Race Recap from Churchill Downs:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Churchill Downs can be found here:
Race 1: 2nd@ 1.80/1
Race 6: 7th@ 16.80/1
Race 8: 6th@ 11.20/1
Haney Boys started our Thursday from Churchill Downs in Race 1 and he was on the early pace, conceded that lead about halfway through the race to the runner who ended up finishing third and in the meantime, Zoffa blew by everyone to win for fun. Haney Boys checked in 2nd. In Race 6 we took a shot with Ariston coming off a layoff but he stalked and faded. In Race 8 we went with another longshot - Saintsation but it wasn’t meant to be. She stalked and faded.
We made it! It’s Breeder’s Cup Friday and I’m really excited for this weekend. We’re expecting fast and firm conditions at Del Mar for both Friday and Saturday. Was initially going to record a Friday video but with most of Friday’s races being juvenile races there’s not a ton of form to go off of and not as much content to cover so I will be sending a Breeder’s Cup Saturday video like normal this week.
Friday's Breeders Cup Picks for Del Mar:
Race 6: (Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint - Grade 2): Kaufymaker - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
Trainer Wesley Ward has the morning line favorite for this race in Averley Jane along with 4/1 shot Twilight Gleaming but one that’s been forgotten is Kaufymaker whom Ward thought enough of to ship to Royal Ascot earlier this year. She didn’t win that day but ran competitively enough and was given time off. She returned with two strong efforts including her race last out where she ran 2nd to Averley Jane. In that race, Averley Jane got a clear and easy lead and Kaufymaker closed well despite not having that favorable pace scenario. There’s more pace on today and I look for Kaufymaker to have a big chance.
Race 7: (Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies - Grade 1): Juju’s Map - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)
Six horse field but one of the most competitive races on the weekend. Echo Zulu is lined at 4/5 on the morning line and races for an outfit that’s been having trouble winning a race over the last month or so. Over the last 30 days they’re winning at just a 12% clip - a HUGE step down for this barn. For this reason I’m staying away from their runners this weekend but Juju’s Map is one we had last time out. Trainer Brad Cox who’s known as a Midwest/Kentucky trainer has a 20% win rate in California over the last five years and he knows how to condition these two-year-olds. In her most recent start, Juju’s Map blasted the Alcibiades field by running the speed into the ground and not giving the closers a chance to get close. I’m looking for a similar trip today for her.
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Race 8: (Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - Grade 1): Koala Princess - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Tough field in this Grade 1 event. Europe has a few major contenders as do we. One who might fly under the radar a bit is Koala Princess due to her lower profile connections and nondescript background. She made her debut at Monmouth sprinting on turf where she blasted a field of maidens winning by 8 lengths. Okay, maybe that field was bad. Next out they raced her at Kentucky Downs where she stretched to 6 1/2 furlongs and this time she changed tactics and rode the rails, stalking the pace. When asked, she roared to the lead under the lightest urging. That impressed me. Her breeding suggests she’ll handle the distance and I think she’s a sleeper in this spot.
Race 9: (Breeder’s Cup Juvenile - Grade 1): Oviatt Class 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
Unlike the Juvenile Fillies which appears to be wide open, this year’s running of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile looks to be between a handful of runners. Jack Christopher is one we’ve had on debut and for his victory in the Champagne Stakes. It’s sometimes difficult to come off a runner when they’ve never lost for you, to jump to a runner you’ve never won on but sometimes that’s horse racing. And while Jack Christopher has impressed thus far, his breeding indicates he may be distance limited. Our likely second choice - Corniche along with several others in here have early speed which may set the table for a closer, and while I don’t love Commandperformance - our likely third choice, I think Oviatt Class may offer some value here. He was moving best of all at the end of the American Pharoah Stakes last time out and that race didn’t have a ton of pace. Today’s race will, so it should set up even more favorably. Value at 20/1.
Race 10: (Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 1): Portfolio Company - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Juvenile turf runners go here to close out Breeder’s Cup Friday and many handicappers’ first instinct is to just go with a European runner because they’re probably better on turf. From a numbers standpoint though that’s not definitively true and it may leave a horse like Portfolio Company at higher odds than you’d normally get. Trainer Chad Brown is winning at a 24% rate overall this year and those numbers are very similar across the country. They’re not limited to New York. He runs Portfolio Company here off a four horse prep race which was oddly run and won by Annapolis who was recently injured and therefore not in this race. Portfolio Company ran a bang up race that day and he got the services of Flavien Prat who’s the top rider here at Del Mar. 6/1 on a leading trainer and rider? You bet! Welcome to the Breeder’s Cup!
Best of luck to everyone playing Breeder’s Cup Friday from Del Mar!