Thursday 11.4 Churchill Downs Picks: After 2 winners Wednesday, God's Tipster handicaps the 1st, 6th and 8th
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Thursday 11.4 Churchill Downs Picks: After 2 winners Wednesday, God's Tipster handicaps the 1st, 6th and 8th

Two longshot bets run in the later races.

Wednesday’s Race Recap from Churchill Downs:

(All odds US)

Replays for yesterday’s races from Churchill Downs can be found here:

Race 2: 8th@ 4.50/1

Race 7: 1st@ 1.00/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Race 8: 1st@ 5.50/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Race 10: 5th@ 3.50/1

Lady Livermore got our November kicked off in Race 2 with a non-effort going first time dirt. Her closing kick on dirt was very different from the one she had on turf. We’ll wait for a surface switch before trying this one again. In Race 7, a change of tactics helped Buckingham Prince get the victory by a nose over sharp first time starter Timeless Joke. In Race 8, our selection - Blake B. defeated 9 other runners easily handling the field after stalking the pace at generous odds of 5.50/1. In Race 10, Bless The Kitten stalked the early pace, and took the lead turning for home and got swarmed in mid stretch fading to fourth.

We’re back at Churchill Downs for more racing action on Thursday with a fast main track. Let’s get started:

Thursday picks for Churchill Downs:

Race 1: Haney Boys - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)

Maiden claimers go a mile and there’s one runner in here who’s not being offered up for sale and that’s Haney Boys. That’s because he was claimed from his most recent start back in April at Oaklawn Park. New trainer Thomas Van Berg doesn’t have much data for runners returning from +180 days rest but he does win at a 29% clip with runners first time off the claim and wins with 33% of runners stretching to a route first time off a claim with a layoff. He’s been working well enough and isn’t likely to be favored. 4/1 odds is good value here.

Race 6: Ariston - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)

Maidens race a mile-and-a-quarter on dirt here and this is a funny race as neither of our two favorites have raced over a fast main track before. Ariston will be a rank outsider here and as long as we’ve got runners doing things they’ve never done before we may as well take a chance with a price. Ariston was purchased for $500k for his connections and is a half brother to Plainsman - who recently won the Grade 3 Ack Ack Stakes. Toss his one start which was on turf - a surface he’s not bred for and he’s been working well enough since. Trainer Ian Wilkes can connect at a price every now and again.

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Race 8: Saintsation - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)

Claiming fillies race a mile here and without any real standouts I see value in Saintsation - a runner who owns the best speed figure in the field over the surface and the second highest speed figure (by only a point) at the distance. Lined at 15/1 and racing for trainer Bernie Flint, who’s won plenty of races at Churchill Downs, Saintsation goes sprint to route (15% wins) and second off a layoff should produce her best effort. Prime value at 15/1 or higher.

Best of luck to everyone playing Thursday’s races from Churchill Downs!

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