Wednesday 11.3 Churchill Downs Picks: God's Tipster looks for winners in the 2nd, 8th and 10th races
Good morning and welcome to Breeder’s Cup week! For the uninitiated, the Breeder’s Cup is a group of races that take place every year, pitting the very best runners from every division against one another. This year’s Breeder’s Cup weekend is taking place at Del Mar Racetrack on Friday and Saturday. I will be putting out an extra video on Friday morning to cover the Friday races along with my usual Saturday video so be on the lookout for that.
While we wait, we’ll take a look at Wednesday’s races from Churchill Downs where we expect cloudy skies and cool temperatures with a fast main track. Their turf course is undergoing some renovations so there is no turf racing. Let’s get to work.
Wednesday picks for Churchill Downs:
Race 2: Lady Livermore - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
Two-year-old fillies race 6 furlongs on the main track and none of the ones, in this maiden claiming event, who have raced previously look like world beaters. Lady Livermore is a bit intriguing at a price here. She has one start under her belt where she hopped at the gate while sprinting on turf. She made an eye catching move in the stretch to get third place that day. She’s better bred for dirt and races for a trainer who’s won 30% of her races in 2021 and has won with an impressive 3 of 7 runners going turf to dirt over the last five years. She’s actually got a three race win streak with her turf to dirt runners dating back a little over a year. Value at 10/1 or higher.
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Race 8: Blake B. - 1 pt win (Us Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Claimers go a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the main track. Our selection, Blake B. will be running for the second time for new connections after a quick return on investment for his new owners with a maiden win at Keeneland. Trainer Chris Hartman (21%) took this runner from a 5% barn so the 19 point speed figure improvement isn’t completely unexpected. If he runs back to his last race, the rest are running for second place.
Race 10: Bless The Kitten - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Starter Allowance runners go a mile-and-an-eighth on dirt and on the surface there looks like there should be some pace in here. Bless The Kitten will likely be a part of that early scrimmage but this four-year-old gelding winner of 3 of his last 4 races and 7 of his last 10 will take some beating here. Coming off a career top score at Belterra Park, Bless The Kitten stalked the speed, took over halfway through the race and drew off to win by nearly 6 lengths. A 27% winning trainer has spotted their runners well and they win with jockey Albin Jimenez 27% of the time. Tough customer right back.
Best of luck to everyone playing Wednesday’s races from Churchill Downs!
