Belmont Park Thursday: God's Tipster picks the 2nd, 3rd, 5th races, with horses from Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher
Wednesday’s Race Recap from Keeneland:
(All odds US)
Race replays for yesterday’s races from Keeneland can be found here:
Keeneland:
Race 1: 9th@ 6.50/1
Race 7: 1st@ 2.10/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 8: 3rd@ 1.80/1
We started the week in Race 1 with Inspeightful we needed her to break on top and try to speed away. She broke flat and never made the lead and her race was over before it began. In Race 7 we had Tipsy Gal and Brian Hernandez rode her masterfully. Instead of gunning to the lead, he elected to sit back off the speed dual and from there she had one rival to gun down in the stretch for the victory. Hoping some of our members got odds closer to the 4/1 morning line than the 2.10/1 odds we got in the States. In Race 8 we got our wish with Already Charming getting the early lead and she battled bravely to the wire finishing third in a blanket photo finish.
With rain in the Thursday forecast for Keeneland, we’ll shift our attention to Belmont Park where we’re expecting ideal conditions with mild temps, a fast main track and a firm turf course. Let’s get started.
Thursday picks for Belmont Park:
Race 2: Shutters - 1 pt win (Us Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Trainer Chad Brown is simply the best turf trainer in the country and 6/1 odds are too appealing to pass up. Shutters was favored first time out racing at Saratoga in August, off somewhat impressive workouts. Things didn’t pan out on debut as he raced greenly and started moving late but there’s reason to expect marked improvement with that effort under his belt. First, this trainer wins with 27% of runners off this type of layoff and 25% of runners making their second career start. Additionally, sire - Get Stormy only wins with 3% of his first time starters but with 15% of his turf routers overall so there’s hope. Blinkers on should give this one added focus and Manny Franco riding will ensure better odds than if one of the Ortiz brothers was riding. Improvement expected.
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Race 3: Perfect Munnings - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)
Allowance runners sprint 6 1/2 furlongs and a few of the favorites in here come across as a little untrustworthy. Rail runner - Wudda U Think Now has been running against much better but is coming off a layoff after an awful effort in the slop at Saratoga. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez only wins with 9% of allowance sprinters coming off similar layoffs so we’ll look elsewhere. 5/2 shot - Mahaamel was awful last time out and won’t be getting our money. Todd Pletcher’s other runner has the look of an up and comer. A winner of 3 of 6 starts, Perfect Munnings ‘ most recent dirt start earned him a career high speed figure first time back off a layoff. Last time out he finished 7th as the favorite going first time turf and he appears to have the best finishing kick of all in a race laden with speed. Good value at 3/1.
Race 5: Al’s Rocket - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)
Maiden runners go 6 1/2 furlongs here and you’ve probably heard me say this before - but the horses who have already made a start don’t look all that imposing so I’m taking a chance with a first time starter. “A chance” these days with Pletcher’s win percentage with first time starters on dirt over the last two months is a robust 35% with 9 wins from 26 starters over the challenging Saratoga season. Al’s Rocket is bred to be precocious with both Pioneerofthenile and Lemon Drop Kid in the bloodlines. Am hoping this “Rocket” blasts off and never looks back.
Best of luck to everyone playing Thursday’s races from Belmont Park!