Keeneland Thursday: God's Tipster picks MSW horses dropping to maiden claiming in races 2, 4, and 10

Wednesday’s Race Recap from Delaware Park:

(All odds US)

Race 1: SCRATCH

Race 2: 2nd@ 0.60/1

Race 3: SCRATCH

We kicked our week off with King’s House scratching from Race 1 and our Race 3 selection also scratching leaving us with Luann in Race 2. Luann sat the trip off a blistering speed duel but was unable to catch eventual winner - My Best Friend, finish second as the favorite.

Let’s take a look at Thursday’s card from Keeneland where we’re expecting partly cloudy skies with a fast main track and a firm turf course. Let’s get started!

Thursday picks for Keeneland:

Race 2: Waters of Merom - (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)

Maiden claimers line up to start our day and Classical Romance looks like the controlling speed here but she hasn’t shown much staying power in her three starts to date. Her trainer is also struggling so far at the meet with no wins or second place finishes from 15 starters which is a bit odd for a trainer of that caliber. Waters of Meron, on the other hand, has enough speed to stay close and is bred to handle the stretch-out. Her barn drops her from maiden special weight to maiden claimers which is a winning move 34% of the time. They’re winning at 31% at the meet and go to their top rider here. 3/1 looks like solid value here.

Race 4: Lemonadeatthelatch - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/5)

Favorite players rejoice! We’re going with the favorite in Race 4 as Lemonadeatthelatch brings many of the same things to the table as our pick in Race 1. This runner is trained by Brad Cox (31%), is dropping from maiden special races to maiden claimers (34% wins) and jockey Florent Geroux climbs aboard this one as well. They tried this runner on turf against MUCH tougher competition and she beat half the field. Nobody’s form here looks too special and 8/5 would be good value in this race.

Readers of Bettors Insider are getting a bonus preview of my day’s selections. To sign up for daily emails with the day’s FULL selections and weekly Saturday videos, click here:

Race 10: Catalan - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)

Our third of three maiden claiming races here and Catalan has shown plenty of pop-and-stop in her four starts to date. The rest of the field hasn’t shown much early pop and that’s where our competitive advantage comes into play. Catalan races for a relatively low profile barn and rider who actually win with a whopping 36% of their runners dropping from maiden special weight races to maiden claimers. She’s dropping out of a race where she faced some talented runners and faces no such competition here.

Good luck to all our members playing Thursday’s races from Keeneland!!!