Churchill Downs Friday: God's Tipster picks longshots in the 5th and 8th races
Thursday’s Race Recap from Belmont Park:
(All odds US)
Replays from Belmont Park can be found here:
Race 1: 5th@ 6.40/1
Race 5: SCRATCH
Race 6: SCRATCH
We started our final day of September at Belmont with Wicked Amber in Race 1. Taken far off a pace we expected to be a bit faster and closed from last to get 5th. For some reason, even though the weather is beautiful, our selections in races 5 & 6 both scratched, so that was our only pick for the day. Thanks for your support with a profitable September for the US Racing Expert !
We’ll head back to Churchill Downs for more exciting racing for Friday’s card. I looked at Belmont’s races again but nothing stood out. With only 5 weeks to the Breeder’s Cup, this weekend is a HUGE prep weekend with TONS of great stakes action. For Friday’s card at Churchill Downs, once again we’re expecting sunny skies and mild temperatures with a fast main track and a firm turf course. I like two longshots on the day. Let’s get started:
Friday picks for Churchill Downs:
Race 5: Dox Biz - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
Maiden claimers race 5 1/2 furlongs here and this field admittedly isn’t very good but I noticed an interesting angle: Randy Morse, trainer of Dox Biz. Morse wins at a gigantic 35% rate with maidens second time out and wins with an impressive 27% of his runners dropping from maiden special weights to maiden claimers. His most impressive number though is with two-year-olds with whom he wins at a wicked 38% with a sample size of 16. In looking at a few of his winners, there are a few whose running lines mirror this one. Tango Charlie was one that ran at Oaklawn earlier this year and his running line said “finished early” first time out - finishing 20 3/4 lengths behind in last place. He won his next start at odds of 23/1. In Dox Biz’s first start, he finished 21 3/4 lengths behind the field in last place with a similar running line. I’d expect improvement here with a real upset possibility at long odds.
Readers of Bettors Insider are getting a bonus preview of my day’s selections. To sign up for daily emails with the day’s FULL selections and weekly Saturday videos, click here.
Race 8: Jungle Warfare - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
Allowance runners go a mile and a sixteenth here and if history is any indication, the 9/5 morning line on Major Fed will end up being more like 1/1 by post time. If that’s the case I’d rather take a chance with Jungle Warfare. This runner was given 9 months off after being claimed and returned with a 4th place finish. Last time out he ran the second fastest race of his career, closing into a fast pace on turf. I’m expecting a decent pace in today’s race and he’s proven that he likes the main track even more than turf. Third time off a layoff this runner should be primed for his effort for a barn that’s going good right now. We’ll take our chances on this one at 15/1.
Best of luck to everyone playing Friday’s races from Churchill Downs!!!