Saratoga Friday: God's Tipster picks five races – the 1st, 4th, 5th, 7th, 10th – including two 20-1 longshots
Thursday’s Recap from Saratoga:
(All odds US)
Race replays from Saratoga can be found here:
Race 1: 1st@ 0.85/1 🔥🔥🔥
Race 3: SCRATCH
Race 6: 2nd@ 2.25/1
Race 8: 1st@ 1.90/1 (disqualified and placed 2nd)
We began our day the way we ended yesterday - with a win! Albeit at a smaller price. Bee Bit went a bit wide on the far turn but scored emphatically in Race 1. After our day’s BEST BET scratched from Race 3, we had our first time starter - The Institute – break first from the rail in Race 6 before taking up and checking down the backstretch. From there he was taken back, then 5 wide turning for home (a reminder that he broke from post 1) to gain a strong second place. He should’ve won today but got unlucky. In Race 8, Candy Tycoon held on to win by a nose giving us two wins and an unlucky second place finish from three selections on the day’s card. But hold those tickets! After an extensive stewards' inquiry, they disqualified Candy Tycoon for coming out in the stretch and interfering with Mo Gotcha. Sometimes the handicapping is there but the luck just isn’t.
We look ahead to our final Friday of the Saratoga meet. We’re expecting fast and firm conditions beneath partly sunny skies and mild conditions. Let’s get to work!
Friday picks for Saratoga:
Race 1: Bet - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
We kick our day off with maiden claimers sprinting 6 furlongs and we’ve got a field full of first time starters that are all unknown commodities but I’m siding with a runner who’s got a race under his belt. Bet ships in from Woodbine after a non-effort on polytrack about a month and a half ago. Trainer Steve Asmussen is winning at 22% for the meet and wins at that rate with his second time starters. He wins with 23% of his drops into the maiden claiming ranks although this runner being put up for $75k isn’t really dropping much. This one went for 3x his sire's normal stud fee and his Tomlinson is 445 so I expect a much better effort with an additional 5 works under his belt.
Race 4: Ruse - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
In a race that’s relatively devoid of early speed, not only does Ruse own that advantage but he’s the only runner with any sort of speed near the rail which is a definite advantage on the inner turf. He’s also got a recency advantage over a few in here that he’s coming off a win with stronger and stronger races since he’s started running on Lasix. At 10/1 he’s worth a play.
Race 5: Dee Bo - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)
Dee Bo appears to have a considerable class and speed figure edge over many of these. He should be able to stalk the speed and get first run turning for home without much closing behind him. Lower profile connections should help the odds stay fair.
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Race 7: Entertainment - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
Salty group of turf milers here and we’re taking a bit of a chance with a new face. Entertainment ships in from Delaware Park for low profile connections after back-to-back gate-to-wire scores on the turf. There’s not a ton of early speed signed on here and the fact that he gets Tyler Gaffalione to ride only helps. 1 for 1 record at the distance coming off two wins and a bullet workout. Worth a long look at 20/1 as this inner turf can produce a wire-to-wire score from time to time at long odds.
Race 10: Expect Temptation - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
We’re going hunting for bombs in this closing weekend at Saratoga as many times, closing weekends produce those. There are bombs and there are runners like Expect Temptation who will be a longshot due to her maiden claiming races and her lower profile connections but her best races fit right with the best of these. With 6 starts under her belt she’s the second most experienced runner in this field. Three works since her most recent start and a positive rider change complement her stalking style which should put her in the thick of things when the going gets tough. 20/1? Yes please.
Best of luck to everyone playing Friday’s races from Saratoga!