Maiden America Friday: The Hooptie Handicapper picks races at Ellis Park and Saratoga
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Maiden America Friday: The Hooptie Handicapper picks races at Ellis Park and Saratoga

His first pick at Timonium has already run.

Maiden America 09.03.21

Hooptie Handicapper

Email hooptiehandicapper@gmail.com

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My first selection today will be a $40,000 waiver maiden claiming race from Timonium, at the fairgrounds, just north of Baltimore. This is for two year old fillies going four furlongs on dirt. My choice for this is 3-Miss Casey (4/1) where she is trained by 24% first time trainer Anthony Farrior, who told me once that two year olds were his specialty. She is ridden by Arnaldo Bocachica, CT’s stud jockey and a 36% winner with Farrior. The three favorites in this race are either not up to snuff to reach par today, or in for a tag. Although in for a tag today, one to watch is 6-Felons Only (15/1) who is sired by Vancouver, a terrific sire for this level of competition and sex.

Next is the 5th at Ellis Park, a $51,000 maiden special for two year olds on turf going a mile and a sixteenth. I am going with Godolphin’s 7-Heston (7/2) who Godolphin seems to put maiden horses in turf races and they win more often than not. In this case, Dialed In, his sire, is a 17% win prop and his 1:01 breeze looks appealing. Another colt worth watching is by Medaglia d’Oro, the 2-Tommy Bee (2/1) a Brad Cox trainee with marginal works, yet these rich bloodlines come alive on race day.

The 6th at Ellis Park is $51,000 maiden special for two year old fillies going one mile. Juju’s Map (2/1) will not be denied today as she put up a solid 70 Equibase number versus similar and in that race rushed near to the leader by a head and tired, dropping back two and a half lengths for place. She recently had a :48.8 work and stretching out to this distance works well given her sire and her granddad, Street Sense.

Finally, the 6th at Saratoga is an $85,000 maiden special for fillies foaled in New York, going five and a half furlongs on the turf. The only filly that I am interested in is 2-Howdyoumakeurmoney (7/2) as she had a troubled trip last out and was able to nestle the lead before tiring. Her sire is Freud, who is a 25% win prop with second time turf fillies and Group 1 breeze fig horses are a 19% win prop in their second go around.

Happy Hunting 😊

*BreezeFigs Defined

Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.

There are four Groups:

G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;

G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;

G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;

G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors

Class Edge High

  • OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March

Class Edge Good

  • OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April

  • EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May

Class Edge Moderate

  • OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June

Class Edge High

  • OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March

Class Edge Good

  • OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April

  • EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May

Class Edge Moderate

  • OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June

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