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Maiden America Wednesday: The Hooptie Handicapper picks 2 yo races at Colonial Downs, Delaware Park, Saratoga

First post is 1:45 pm EDT.

Maiden America 08.25.21

Hooptie Handicapper


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We had a profitable week last week and will look for the same with a short week as I make my way to historic Saratoga Springs for my annual pilgrimage to the Travers Stakes

The first race is at Colonial Downs and it is the 1st race on the card. This will be a Maiden Special for 2yos going six furlongs and I am going to immediately toss out both horses with race day experience 2-Mr Jefferson (6/1) and 3-Shake Em Loose (8/1) as they each raced at 48 Equibase numbers last out and will not project to today's par of 78. Jumping off the page immediately is a Shug entrant 1-Smokin T (2/1) as I do not recall him having a horse here. I’ll have to further research this. Regardless, this is a heck of a colt, catching $295K at KEE SEP YRLG sale and hitting a slew of 12er’s with many from the gate. His ½ brothers on his daddy side have fared to mix results in their two year season, so we’ll see how today goes. Below is a matrix on the sires of today’s first starters. The dams of todays first starters have zero foals that started in their 2yo season.

Sires chart
Sires chartRT

I would lean to Michael Trombetta’s 5-Conclusive (9/2) over either of Dallas Stewarts entrants 6-Jesuit (9/2) or 4-Hippodrome (4/1) even if the win percentages were lower. Conclusive just turned in a 1:00 and Dara’s Boy did a :47.3, so those two will go at it. I’ll take Conclusive with Joe Rocco in the irons today.

The second race is the 8th from Colonial and it is a $60,000 Allowance race for 2yo fillies, going five and a half furlongs, that have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter, OR, which have never won two races. Checking our database, we only have four races that fit this criterion and the results look like this:

Race chart
Race chartRT

So, the only winner had the lowest Equibase score and two races, yet the highest Equibase score had the second worst finish. Bad data. I do have data on the sisters of 4-Lanfrankophile (5/1) and it is not good for their second start stepping up. I am going with 3-Jackknife (5/2) who, if I am reading this right, didn’t miss the track record by much in her debut at five furlongs, running it in :57.9 and the record is :57.9. She came out of it well with a strong work on August 9 of :47.21.

Next race is going to be a $50,000 stakes race for Delaware bred fillies that are two years of age. This will be the sixth race on the card and it will be decided at five and a half furlongs. 1-My Boss (8/5) and 2-California Belle (5/2) appear to be false favorites after waving their claim last out. 3-Show’Em Who’S Boss (7/2) and 6-Cashing Big Checks (4/1) appear to have the better chance. I will take the Ness trained Cashing Big Checks exiting an msw race and by Indian Charlie.

Our final race today is from Saratoga and it’s a New York State bred race for two year old maiden fillies for $85,000 contested at one and one sixteenth mile on the turf and this one is a stinker. I am going to take, by heavy process of elimination, 3-Waterville (3/1) ridden by Tyler Gaffalione and trained by Christophe Clemente. Out of all the experience sires in this group, this is the only one that came back with a double digit winning percentage

Happy Hunting

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