Maiden America Sunday: The Hooptie Handicapper picks two 2yos at Saratoga
Racing at Saratoga.NYRA / Trevor Miles

Maiden America Sunday: The Hooptie Handicapper picks two 2yos at Saratoga

First post is 1:05 pm EDT.

Maiden America 08.22.21

Hooptie Handicapper

Email hooptiehandicapper@gmail.com

Follow @RtsSpot

Yesterday bore some fruit with Wholelattamo paying $5.20/$3. I thought that Pletcher’s colt out of Constitution 1a-Major General or Chad Brown’s Into Mischief colt, 6-Triple Elvis would win, and I vacillated on the bet and ended up taking Triple Elvis. Woe is me. With an Equibase par of 87 for The Soaring Free Stakes, there were a plethora of angles to choose from and I opted for the wrong one, yet you could have made a case for four on the six runners’ pre-race. As stated for The Catch a Glimpse Stakes at Woodbine, Diabolic was the one to beat and she has been raced three times and won three times. Where next? My choice, Mrs. Barbara, had a tawdry trip and ended up collecting show money. With my betting pattern of anything over 5/1, I bet X amount to win and 2X amount to show. So, in this case, I bet $100 to win on Mrs. Barbara and $200 to show, laying out $300 and returning $540, for a net of $240. So, it was a profitable race for me, netting a +$5.40 profitable day

From Saratoga in the 1st race, this is a $100,000 maiden special for two year old filles contesting at six and one half furlongs. I am going with second time starter by Nyquist, Four Dawn (4/1) by process of elimination. Both of Chad Brown’s entrants, 2-Saffron Moon (5/1), Malibu Moon, and 4-Dover Dreams (9/2) by Arrogate, have low percentage winning first time starters for sires. Pletcher’s horse, 6-Goddess Of Fire by Mineshaft (3/1) is the same. Steve Asmussen’s filly by Cupid, 3-Time For Cupid (2/1), was dq’d in her lone debut effort and although I do not have statistical data, I have noticed that dq’d horses in their bow usually fare poorly next out. 1-Everylovelslinda (6-1) and her sire is Secret Circle, who does not have a great record in second time starting fillies. That leaves one choice and after her 73 Equibase score from her bow, she is positioned well for upside to the 79 par.

The 2nd race on this Saratoga card is another $100,000 maiden special and this is for fillies that are two years old, going one mile and a sixteenth on turf. We have fillies from Unified, 1-Highly Devauxted (6/1), Bernardini, 10-Five Prizes (10/1) two from Declaration of War 7-Decree Of Love (8/1) and 5-Miss You Ella (3/1) an Into Mischief filly 8-Seduce (8/1), a Frankel filly 3-Fortineno (5/2) an American Pharoah filly 6-Madamoussepousse (8/1) and one by Frosted 9-Diamond Hands (4/1). Below is a table for you to use and it is predicated upon sires who have two year old fillies running. One part is for overall and the second part os fr turf runners.

Chart
ChartRT

So, between that and the breeze figures below, have at it.

Happy Hunting 😊

RT

psst- personally, I like the Frankel filly

Breeze figs
Breeze figsRT

*BreezeFigs Defined

Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.

There are four Groups:

G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;

G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;

G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;

G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors

Class Edge High

  • OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March

Class Edge Good

  • OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April

  • EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May

Class Edge Moderate

  • OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June

Class Edge High

  • OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March

Class Edge Good

  • OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April

  • EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May

Class Edge Moderate

  • OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June

Related Stories

No stories found.
Bettors Insider
www.bettorsinsider.com