Maiden America Friday at Saratoga: The Hooptie Handicapper picks 2yos racing in the 5th and 6th
Racing at Saratoga. NYRA / Chelsea Durand

Maiden America Friday at Saratoga: The Hooptie Handicapper picks 2yos racing in the 5th and 6th

RT's first Saratoga post is 3:21 pm EDT.

Maiden America 08.13.21

Hooptie Handicapper

Email hooptiehandicapper@gmail.com

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Yesterday, while watching my selections tanked, I kept hearing this murmuring, make that a top of lungs screaming voice, from my West Point friend telling me ‘Dumbass, I told you, the data is unemotional, it doesn’t lie, follow it.’

Ego+gambling=☹

For our Friday the 13th edition, there are a pair of two-year-old races at The Spa.

Saratoga Race 5 - $100K Maiden Special

2yo fillies going 5.5 furlongs on turf

Breeze figs
Breeze figsRT

Our updated stats for 2yo’s at Saratoga this meet for msw races

Group 1-1/4

Group 2-3/15

Group 3-1/7

Group 4-0/5

9-Champagne Camie (9/2), 7-Speedometer (7/2) and 11-Seduce (12/1 on AE list) all experienced and I am uninterested as 2yos with two races experience are 4 for 29 overall and at Saratoga, they are 0 for 7. 4-Bubble Rock (8/1) is half-brother to blacktype winner of $2.2M overall and a 7:5-0-0 turf record for $1.1M, Catholic Boy, who had a fantastic late season run as a 3yo scoring the Belmont Derby, the Travers, and the BC Classic. Christophe Clement having a wonderful summer with 2yo first timers hitting at 22%. Her works have been solid with a :48.1 breeze from the gate on July 27, so she’ll be a player. 6-Splitsecondsonny (6/1) of course we are going to have a Chad Brown entry and this time it comes from Connect, a Curlin progeny who is listed 8th of freshman sires this year with foals’ earnings of $310K thus far. Her mom, Timetobegone has one other foal, who won at first asking, and then tried turf once without success. The dad, Connect, never tried grass as well as grandpa Curlin. However, Connect’s two new crop fillies have this year, and one hit gold. Of course, you never leave Chad Brown off your ticket in these events and with Manny Franco up, they’re a deadly 31% combo. 5-Lia Marina (5/1) will be Christophe’s second Uncle Mo horse to debut on turf with one winning and the other coming in second. This filly’s mom, Lira, won at first ask on turf and Lia Marina is her only foal thus far. Her works have been solid with a 48.1 gate of late. 1-More Than Vows (4/1) will be on the lead with her :46.8 work from the gate on August 7 and could take it to the house. Her sire, More Than Ready, is not known for first time female sprinters, hitting only at 8%.

I am going to play an exacta with Chad’s horse, Splitsecondsonny, 5-Lia Marina and 3-Stormy Stella (15/1) ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Stormy Stella, a Group 2 breeze fig filly, comes from a lineage of closers and the speed should set her up with Splitsecondsonny and Lia Marina to fly home late.

I’ll go 3-5-6/all for $45

Saratoga Race 6 - $85K Maiden Special

NY Bred 2yo fillies going six furlongs on dirt.

Breeze figs
Breeze figsRT

Our updated stats for 2yo’s at Saratoga this meet for state bred msw races

Group 1-0/5

Group 2-1/6

Group 3-0/5

Group 4-0/3

As we did on July 30, we have another Laoban foal, 6-Alicia’s Way (15/1) trained by Jeremiah Englehart, entered today. Laoban’s Legacy, a colt trained by Chris Englehart, Jeremiah’s son, blistered a similar group by almost eight lengths that day. Considering her half brother raced against only five others, it’s doubtful we’ll see that same type of performance. The one to beat today is the Todd Pletcher trained filly out of Into Mischief, 7-Doc Doc Rock (2/1). She just nailed a five furlong breeze in 1:00.9 and a gate work of :48.9. This is Todd’s seventh Into Mischief two year old and he is only 1/6 with them thus far. If you are an odds player, you’ll want to bet against her. 14-Trinity Titoli (8/1) is a filly to put in your virtual stable as I doubt she’ll see the starting gate today being fourth on standby. However, an 80 breeze fig is awesome, and it doesn’t take long for high-flyers like her to get off the schneid. 2-Howdoyoumakeurmoney (9/2) is out of Freud who is 10/30 with 2yo first time fillies. This one I’m not wild about as her works have been shoddy 1:02’s and :50’s. 1-Royal Currency (6/1) out of Overanalyze, who is a solid 15% with first timers and 13% with first time 2yo fillies. Her mamma, Gold For The Queen, has three foals who have been competitive in their fist start, with one a winner, one missing by a nose and the third cashing a fourth place check. Trackmaster rates Saratoga’s rail as an A (their highest) and front runners get an A. Joel Rosario knowing this, is certain to get her on the lead straight away. I am going with 5-Sue Ellen Mishkin (4/1) who is half-sister to stud-ette 2yo Elm Drive, who just gamely fought off Eda to win the Sorrento at Del Mar. Out of the Jorge Abreu barn, her sire Mohaymen is the sixth leading freshman sire clipping at an astounding 22% win rate with first time starters.

Recap

Race 5 – exacta 3-5-6/all

Race 6 – Sue Ellen Mishkin Win/2xPlace

Happy Hunting 😊

*BreezeFigs Defined

Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.

There are four Groups:

G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;

G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;

G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;

G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors

Class Edge High

  • OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March

Class Edge Good

  • OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April

  • EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May

Class Edge Moderate

  • OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June

Class Edge High

  • OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March

Class Edge Good

  • OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April

  • EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May

Class Edge Moderate

  • OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June

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