Maiden America Thursday: The Hooptie Handicapper picks three 2yo races at Saratoga
Maiden America 08.12.21
Crazy money spent at Saratoga’s 100th Auction on Monday/Tuesday night … and that’s just the cost of admission. Now they have vet bills, housing, transportation, food, insurance, ad nauseum. $$$ Ding Ding Ding $$$
The view is certainly better from these cheap seats 😊
For today, we kick the weekend-to-be off with racing from Saratoga.
Saratoga Race 1 - $85K Maiden Special
2yo Statie’s going six furlongs
Today you are going to see a much improved version of 5-Juggler (7/2) and 2-Gimmedamoney (3/1) who ran together in the mud on July 18th. I’ll give the edge to Gimmedamoney getting the best of the two. Look for 1-Aggregation (4/1) to be in the mix, yet given his bloodlines of Curlin and Flatter, a longer distance may be better. Having Jose up will be useful as he is leading in sprints has 18 wins and overall, 24%.
6-Ava K’s Boy (12/) will have a say in the outcome today as his roots go back to the outstanding sprinter Capote, thru the broodmare Ava K, nee Dixie Union. We saw a Dixie Union/Tapit connection sell for $990K on Monday night. 8-Convertible Freeze (9/2) is out of one of the leading first-crop sires Connect, whose male progeny are 1/7 and frankly, not keyed in at this level, giving an average first Equibase score of 67, which will likely not be enough today. 3-Daufuskie Island (12/) has had two near bullet works on July 2 and August 6, and we saw that angle work yesterday in the fifth with 11/1 shot Anejo getting up late. Checking our database for 2yos at Saratoga, first time starters are 6/34, or 18%, second time starters are 1/14, or 7% and third timers are lagging at 0/6. This changes with state breds as we’ve documented eight of those with a first timer, Laoban’s Legacy, winning the only race of that group. In this race, I am taking Gimmedamoney to make it 2/15 in this category.
Saratoga Race 5 - $85K Maiden Special
NY Bred 2yo’s going six furlongs
All thoroughbred racehorses throw in either a dog performance, or a flat one in their first four races. Yes, one of these races is off the mark, given the horses' capabilities. There are exceptions such as Essential Quality – his Equibase numbers went 88-95-101-109. However, that is a rarity. Life Is Good went 106-110-110, and in his last race, the San Filipe, where he smoked everyone, his score remained static. I would be willing to bet Life Is Good’s first race back is going to have him generate a, for him, marginal Equibase number, and he may not get the win. Uncle Mo went 107-110-123-105. Secretariat lost his 4th race, and the list is endless. 4-Surprise Boss (9/2) out of blacktype winner War Dancer, had his dog race last time in the Rick Violette Stakes, where he chased the early lead and gave way, cashing the fourth place check of $10K. His capabilities are much stronger, hitting an 85 Equibase number and just missing late by a neck at Belmont on July 2. I believe 6-Silver Samurai (6/1) had his bow-wow race last out in the slop where he led the way and weakened late. Luis on the lead today will be dangerous with his 17% sprint win record, 22% win rate, and 36 wins for the meet. 7-Cozy’s Attitude (5/1) gets blinkers today after passing tired foes late in the mud. Gimmedamoney and Juggler from the first race were in his bow, so observing their effort will be a tell as to how this son of Bellamy Road will race. That said, based on his August 7 work of :48.8, he came out of that race well and will be in the hunt. Chad Brown debut’s 9-Key Point (8/5) who is out of leading sire Into Mischief and Polite Smile, nee Distorted Humor. His works have been the same Chad Brown pattern with a 1:01.4 on July 31 and his last and most recent, a :48.8 on August 6. I am going to go with Luis on the lead on Silver Samurai.
Saratoga Race 6 - $85K Maiden Special
NY State foaled 2yo fillies going 5.5 furlongs on turf.
Noble Mission, a son of Euro’s uber sire Galileo, would be considered a blacktype in this country as he amassed a 21/9-6-2 record for $2.2M. His daughter, 3-Lady Of Thoroton (8/1) debuts today and has shown her prowess for longer distances as she clocked a 1:01.2 from the gate on July 26. She is trained by Robert Falcone, who is not a mega trainer, only having 70 starts this year. However, he seems to be of the Charlie Whittingham ilk, where he is not going to bring a horse to Saratoga, unless he has a contender - his 61% itm record shows. 7-Pimenova (7/2) is out of first-year sire Practical Joke, who only has one progeny running on turf named Powerful Force, who he has yet to break his maiden. Her dam, Queen Of The Night, had only one race in her life and her only other foal, a mare named Seek A Star, was lightly raced as well. 4-Classic Lynne (6/1) is out of Classic Empire, who has zero turf races in his days as did his mom, Tristanne. This race, for Classic Lynne, appears to be a prep for some time later. Another entry that appears to fit the same mold is Mark Casse’s 9-Adversity (6/1) who has been working keenly up to this yet does not show much affinity for turf. 10-Skyward Princess (5/2) is going to take a ton of cash due to the Chad/Irad connection and none of that money will be mine. Her daddy, Air Force Blue, has only one of his kiddos’ winning on grass in twenty five attempts. My horse, Makin My Move, was on the also eligible list and is not racing in this, so I am going with a long bomber out of Declaration Of War, a blacktype turfer, who was 9/4-1-1 for $1.3M, 2-My Cara Mia Mine (15/1) Her mom, My Cara Mia, won at first asking as did several of her sisters.
Race 1 – Gimmedamoney
Race 5 – Silver Samurai
Race 6 My Cara Mia Mine
Happy Hunting 😊