Garrity's Saturday Stakes picks races at Woodbine, Monmouth (Irish War Cry), Saratoga (Caress), and Del Mar

It’s a mixed bag of summer stakes racing on this late July Saturday. We have five plays in five races at four tracks. It’s an all-grass lineup today, and we expect firm turf in all of them. Let’s go.

Woodbine, Race 6, 3:43 pm ET

Grade 2 Nassau Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up

The main question in handicapping the Nassau Stakes is what to do with favored 10-Jolie Olimpica, who has finished in the money in six consecutive stakes races since being brought to the U.S. from Brazil a year and a half ago, and whose tack was moved north of the border since her last start in March.

Jolie Olimpica is obviously a talented mare, but we are against her here, as she makes her first start at a new track, and for a new trainer, Josie Caroll; and even before the change, she burned a lot of money, losing at odds-on in half her six U.S. races. We think she's’ an underlay, and the one immutable rule in this game is that one always bets against the underlay.

We like 1-Abby Hatcher. She last ran at Arlington Park a month ago, and when she won an allowance race, and while that effort was on a synthetic track, she is an Irish-bred with a turf pedigree, and has run well on the sod before. She also has a stretch-running style that we think is a fit here, as the early pace figures to be fast. We will bet her to win at 10-1. The bet: Woodbine, Race 6, $35 to win on 1-Abby Hatcher.

Monmouth Park, Race 9, 4:05 pm ET

$85,000 Irish War Cry Handicap, 1 mile, Turf, New Jersey-breds 3 & Up

A field of nine lines up for the Irish War Cry at the Jersey Shore. We usually try to play against favorites, but the morning line pick here, 8-Quiberon Bay, simply looks too tough: he comes off a smart win in an allowance race, which was against open company (horses bred in other states), and it is arguable that this state-bred stakes race is a softer spot than the race he just won. He’s in good form, and his running profile fits the Monmouth Park turf course to a tee. We’re going with the chalk; we will bet Quiberon Bay to win at 9/5. The bet: Monmouth Park, Race 9, $40 to win on 8-Quiberon Bay.

Saratoga, Race 10, 6:13 pm ET

Grade 3 Caress Stakes, 5 ½ furlongs, Turf, FIllies & Mares 4 & Up

Six go in the Caress. On paper, it looks like a speed duel between the two favorites, 1-Caravel and 2-Robin Sparkles, both of whom are need-the-lead types. Their similar styles, plus the fact that they line up next to each other, means, we think, that they are going to run each other into submission, and set the table for a winner coming from off the pace.

That makes the pick 5-Flower Point. She closed from far back to win an allowance race in her last start, and while that race was at a slightly longer distance, she has won at this 5 ½ furlong distance in the past, and we think the pace scenario will play to her strength, which is finishing strongly. We will bet her to win at 8-1. The bet: Saratoga, Race 10, $35 to win on 5-Flower Point.

Del Mar, Race 8, 8:36 pm ET

Grade 2 Eddie Read Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Turf, 3 & Up

Seven older turf horses line up for the Eddie Read. The pick is 2-United, who was last seen running a truly dreadful race in the Whittingham at Santa Anita, one that on paper looked like he would have to fall down to lose. Well, he didn’t fall down, but he did finish last, and even worse, he seemed to do so with no excuse.

But we trust trainer Richard Mandella, a Hall of Famer and unquestioned good guy in the sport, who evidently found a foot issue with United after the race. Mandella says he’s recovered, and his recent workouts seem to support that, as his morning drills of late have been excellent. We think he runs big today, and because of his awful running line in his last race, we get a generous morning line price of 5/2. He’ll probably be shorter than that by post time, but we will bet him anyway, as we think United will show today that he’s the best turf horse on the West Coast. We will bet him to win. The bet: Del Mar, Race 8, $50 to win on 2-United.

Del Mar, Race 10, 9:36 pm ET

Grade 2 San Clemente Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, 3-Year-Old Fillies

The San Clemente, a terrific betting race, drew a field of four. We like 12-Closing Remarks, who finished third in her last start, the Grade 3 Senorita at Santa Anita on May 1. She was the beaten favorite that day, but it was a good effort nonetheless, as she clipped heels at the start, nearly fell down, and still rallied to lose by less than two lengths. We think she rebounds today, which makes her 6-1 morning line price very attractive. We will bet her to win. The bet: Del Mar, Race 10, $40 to win on 12-Closing Remarks.

That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.