Monday Stakes: Garrity picks the $150K Grand Couturier at Belmont Park and the Great Lady M at Los Alamitos

We have plays in two races today, both stakes: one on grass at Belmont Park in the East, and one on dirt at Los Alamitos Race Course in the West. We expect soft turf at Belmont, and fast dirt at Los Al. Let’s go.

Belmont Park, Race 6, 3:34 pm ET

$150,000 Grand Couturier Stakes, 1 ½ miles, 4 & Up

We’re expecting the turf course at Belmont, over which the 12-furlong Grand Couturier will be run, to have some cut in it. In a terrific betting race, the pick, among the ten entrants, is 2-Fantasioso, who will like the going, will have no problem with the distance, and is in good form, with three good races under his belt since his return from a winter vacation. He has a tendency to fall far behind, so we like the fact that trainer Ignacio Correas adds blinkers today. At 10-1, he’s plenty live, and we will play him to win. The bet: Belmont Park, Race 6, $40 to win on 2-Fantasioso.

Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred), Race 8, 7:28 pm ET

Grade 2 Great Lady M Stakes, 6 ½ furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

The Great Lady M Stakes will have the shortest-priced favorite of the day, as super filly 5-Gamine, who has run a hole in the wind winning seven of her eight starts, is 1/5 on the morning line, and figures to be even shorter, if that’s possible, by post time.

But we are playing against her today, partly because her trainer, Bob Baffert, has been cold of late, but mostly because of the way she looked in her last race, the Derby City Distaff at Churchill Downs: yes, she won, but she looked nothing like her dominating self in that race, having to run all-out to beat a very average field. Maybe that day was an aberration, but at a miniscule price, there is nothing wrong with taking a swing against her.

We like 4-Edgeway. She’s a 4-year-old filly from the John Sadler barn who is headed the right way, winning an allowance and a minor stakes in her two starts this year, and another move forward makes her a contender to take the prize here. We’ll play her to win at 4-1, and will also play her to show -- in the event that Gamine runs out of the money, the show payouts will be boxcars. The bets: Los Alamitos, Race 8, $30 to win/$15 to place on 4-Edgeway.