Maiden America Thursday: Hoop Tea's Hooptie Handicapper picks 2yo races at Belmont and Ellis Park
I would appreciate it if one of you will email me back and tell me what a bonehead move it'll be if I drive all the way to Canterbury again to bet a horse. Coal Town Road looked like a champ coming out of the gate and decided he didn’t want to give any more effort going into the turn and came in dead last.
There are two 2yo races today that I am looking at
Belmont Park Race 5 - $75K Maiden Special Weight
NY Bred 2yo fillies going 5.5 furlongs
#6 Darn That Song (9/5) has a race under her belt 8 days ago and you have to wonder what the public knew making her a 17/1 choice. Now the morning line is 9/5? Yes, she is the only one with race day experience, however these are 2yo horses and you never know what you're gonna get. At this price, I'm going to look for something else. #2 Ready A.P. (5/2) is an interesting sort. A $125K Fasig yearling, her dam, Girlabouttown, has two foals and one struck at first asking. Trainer Clement is 20% with first timers and her sire, More than Ready won his first three. #4 One Track Mine (6/1) and I'm mentioning this because I use STATS Race Lens and this popped up as a positive trend. It reads
‘maiden workout pattern based on average # furlongs per day
Success Score = 8.1, ROI = 96%’
Frankly, that is the first time I've ever seen this pop up. This entry's workouts have been pedestrian at best. Based on that, however, it might be worth a shot to keep in your exotics. I am going to take a small wager on #5 Sweet Sugar Baby (12/1) because it would be just like Jeff Engelhart to bring this filly down from working her at Finger Lakes, putting hot jockey Andre Shivnarine (36% last 30 days) and blowing the field away.
Ellis Park Race 6 - $51K Maiden Special Weight
2yo’s going five furlongs
This place brings back memories. My father took me there 100 years ago.
Calumet Farms has two entries #1a Detroit City (5/2) and #1 Magic Shot (5/2). Magic Shot appears to be much more overrated than Detroit City. On May 22nd, Detroit City ran in a $100K msw at Churchill, and put up a respectable 70 Equibase number. He since returned to Keeneland and put in a 1:01 work. As noted here before, Keeneland workouts have been dismissible because they seem to have been working fast and not translatable to other surfaces. That said, there is nothing like race day experience. Keep your eye on the tote board. Unfortunately, I have to catch a flight and I'm running out of time. My choice is #7 Buckingham Prince (4/1) who ran in the same race as Detroit City and just caught a ton of trouble getting bumped and jostled from the rail position. He broke well and showed good early speed. Since then, he has put in works of 1:00.2, :47.8, and :46.8. With an outside draw and his early fleet of foot, he should get the jump on this group and not look back.
Have a fun weekend.
Happy Hunting 😊