Thursday Horse Racing: God's Tipster picks three races at Churchill Downs, likes longshot first-time starter
Wednesday’s Recap from Delaware Park:
(All odds US)
Race 1: 2nd@ 1.00-1
Race 3: SCRATCH
Race 5: SCRATCH
The scratch fairy 🧚🏽♀️ beat us again scratching two of our three picks on the day at Delaware Park. It was odd because the track conditions were fast and firm. Our selection in Race 1 grinded out a second place finish just missing the win.
Let’s take a look at Thursday’s race card from Churchill Downs where we expect fast and firm conditions beneath sunny skies with HOT temperatures and (God willing) minimal scratches.
Race 4: Sweet Queen Bee - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
In a race that appears LOADED with early pace, many times I like going with a horse cutting back from a turf race and Sweet Queen Bee has that very running line. Last time out she faded after prompting the pace in her turf debut. Her dirt starts are strong and she owns the fields best speed figure earned on dirt. Trainer is winning at 17% on the year but is 0 for 10 on the meet thus far. That should only help our odds.
Readers of Bettors Insider are getting a bonus preview of my day’s selections. To sign up for daily emails with the day’s FULL selections and weekly Saturday videos, click here.
Race 7: Reagan’s Edge - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)
Tough little group of fillies and mares here in this feature race dirt sprint. Reagan’s Edge will likely go favored and she’s got the right resume after facing horses like Frank’s Rockette and Venetian Harbor last year. Either of those runners would be 1/5 in here and trainer Cherie DeVaux is winning at 20% at this meet. She employs top rider Tyler Gaffalione here with whom she’s winning at 40% on the meet (2 for 5) and 29% on the year from 21 starters. Her workouts have been crisp and her speed figures lay over these.
Race 8: Lady de Peron (GB) - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15-1)
Maidens run 1 1/8 miles and this group’s top Tomlinson figure for the turf (by a country mile) and also for the distance actually both belong to a 15-1 first time starter named Lady de Peron. I don’t normally love playing first time starters going a route of ground but trainer Ed Vaughan has done well with limited stock this year winning with 2 of 7 runners for a 29% win percentage and a record of 2 for 5 with his turf runners (40% wins). Jockey Adam Beschizza knows how to kick home a longshot on turf and this runner has fast workouts buried in his past performance data (see April 3). Trainer has plenty of works under her belt. Upset special 🤑!
Best of luck 🍀🍀🍀 to everyone playing Thursday’s races from Churchill Downs!!!