Racing at Gulfstream Park.Gulfstream Park Media Guide.

Maiden America Friday: Hoop Tea's handicapper picks 2yo races at Churchill Downs, Gulfstream Park

First race at 12:45 pm EDT.

Maiden America 06.04.21

Hoop Tea's Hooptie Handicapper

Follow @RtsSpot

Our driver is ready, our Hoop Tea packed, we’re off to Elmont to watch our buddy, Essential Quality ↓ Win tomorrow. (RT, not pictured.)@HoopTea

Essential Quality eyeing his next win.RT

Yesterday, our choice of Naval Laughter made it look easy with a blowout win of 19.75 lengths, paying $4.40 & $2.80. We also had the 2-7 exacta for $9 and the 2-7-1 trifecta for $16.50. In the 5^th, our selection of Simple Logic ran simply illogical after #5 Worththemoney, got nutso out of the gate and crossed over his, and #7 Kosher Cowboy’s, path, knocking them far back from the jump. Once he gained his wherewithal, he made a bold charge late and by that time, the field was too far in front. Yesterday, I hit a personal high as I threw $10/win, on a lark, in the 4^th at Belmont. His name is Volkert and he was a first time starter, Group 2 breeze fig type horse. He made a late charge to win at 64/1 paying $131.50.

Two year old races on tap today. Let’s see how many we can get in before deadline…

Churchill Downs Race 1 - $100K Maiden Special Weight

2yo fillies running five furlongs

The big question in this race is who will catch #1 Tizplenty (6/5)?

Tizplenty raced three weeks ago and was sent out as the post time favorite. She set the early pace, took the lead at the stretch, and yielded late, finishing third and getting a 77 Equibase number. That one race experience, along with getting the lead at some point past the first call, is invaluable and tough to beat. So, checking the BreezeFigs*, let’s see if there is anyone who can challenge her, and others entered. We have a Group 2 tested filly, and she has worked well.

Breeze figures.RT

#5 Jalebi Baby (6/1) just worked a :47.4 breeze on May 27, had a 1:00.6 on May 21, so she may get a chance. That sounds trepidatious because she has only one gate workout and that was completed in :49. Barring trouble at the gate, she should be near and in the mix. She is a big filly with a long stride who is out of Bayern, a sire with a 18% first time win rate. #4 Awesome Hope (5/1) ran on May 20 and finished dead last in a race that we called the winner, Rock Along. She got into contention early that day and then faded off badly. Yes, the experience was beneficial, yet the effort was dull. Her lineage stems out of Galileo, a top Euro sire, so her best days may be running for the green on the green. #6 Lady Scarlet (7/2) with the outside post, a recent :46 gate work, Brad Cox/Martin Garcia combo, look for her to come blasting. The question is whether this Union Rags filly can sustain that for another furlong? #3 Meanwhileinleitrim (4/1) an Into Mischief filly that is trained by 9% first time winner Eddie Kenneally and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. She has had two sharp works of last, a :48.8 from the gate on May 27^th and a :36.4 on May 18^th. She could play a factor today.

Considering that most horses improve 15-20 Equibase points in their second start, that would mean Tizplenty would run a 92-97, which would force the others to hit that in their bow today. Unless the track is playing unusually fast, which I doubt, none of these horses seem to have the goods to make that number in their first go ‘round.

Churchill Downs Race 5 - $100K Maiden Special Weight

2yo’s racing five furlongs

#2 Volcanic (7/2) $230K KEESEP YRLG sale colt out of Violence, #4 Feelthebeat (5/1) $47K OBS MAR sale colt out of Cupid, and #5 Cool Pappa G (5/2) $87K KEESEP YRLG COLT out of Maclean’s Music, have all done bomb job works from the gate, just crushing it. Nonetheless, like the above race, they would all have to score a phenomenal number to best 2^nd time starter #7 Heaven Street (3/1) who just hit a 77 Equibase figure on debut less than three weeks ago.

Race 2 Gulfstream Park - $60K Maiden Special Weight

Florida breds racing 4.5 furlongs

Of the eight entered today, five of them have breeze figs. All five have worked out well, so, it’s a crap shoot between them. #7 Hope In Him (3/1) just completed a five furlong workout in 1:01.2 on May 29^th. Giving a workout to your horse at a distance that is longer than the race is always a positive sign. They are looking to build stamina. If you may have an interest in the long strider, #3 Fivefive Six Champ (5/1), we have zero races where a horse of this type of talent has debuted at this short of a distance. So, I am just as intrigued as you.

Breeze figures.RT

#2 Ruling Front (8/1) gets a positive rider switch to Samy Camacho today and has one race experience on May 1. He went off at 46/1, hit the gate, ended up finishing fourth, and scoring a 63 Equibase figure. Yes, good experience, yet no workouts since? Hmmm.

I am going with #7 Hope in Him. Two recent gate works of 1:01 and :35 means he can jump to the lead and go the distance.

*BreezeFigs Defined

Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex. There are four Groups:

G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;

G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;

G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;

G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors

Class Edge High